World gold prices closed the trading week with an increase of about 2.2% for the whole week, ending a four-week consecutive decline and approaching the 4,200 USD/ounce mark. Along with the recovery momentum of the precious metal, the market also recorded changes in US interest rate expectations, the diễn biến of the USD and gold reserve data of central banks.
At the end of the weekend trading session, spot gold prices reached 4,176.94 USD/ounce, up 1.52% compared to the previous session. This is the first week of increase for the precious metal since the end of May.
In the same period, the market adjusted expectations for monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve (Fed). According to data from the interest rate swap market, the probability of the Fed raising interest rates at the most recent meeting has fallen below 20%, about one-third lower than recorded earlier this week. Data from the CME FedWatch tool also shows that the probability of the Fed raising interest rates at the September meeting has decreased from about 66% to 54% after new economic data were released.
At the same time, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index closed the week almost sideways after falling 0.5% in the previous session. The USD also recorded its strongest weekly decline since April, while the yield of 10-year US government bonds remained around 4.5%.
In the energy market, oil prices continued to trade near the pre-crisis level in the Middle East. WTI oil fluctuated around 68.7 USD/barrel, while Brent oil was around 72 USD/barrel. According to the developments of the oil market, transportation through the Strait of Hormuz has gradually stabilized compared to the previous disruption period.
Besides macroeconomic factors, data from the World Gold Council (WGC) released on July 2 showed that central banks net bought 41 tons of gold in May, the second highest level since the beginning of 2026. In the WGC's annual survey released earlier, 89% of central banks surveyed predicted that total global gold reserves would continue to increase in the next 12 months, while 45% said their own central banks planned to increase gold holdings.
On the precious metals market, spot silver prices increased by about 2% to over 62 USD/ounce. Platinum and palladium prices also simultaneously increased in the last session of the week, thereby closing the trading week with positive developments.
After the first week of increase since the end of May, the market will continue to monitor US economic data, the diễn biến of the USD, US government bond yields as well as new signals related to the Fed's monetary policy. Along with that, the gold buying activity of central banks is still one of the data that investors are interested in when assessing the market's prospects in the coming time.
