World gold prices continue to face pressure in the context of high interest rate prospects in the US, causing major financial institutions to simultaneously become more cautious with precious metals.
Recently, Goldman Sachs - one of the world's largest investment banks - lowered its gold price forecast for the end of 2026 to 4,900 USD/ounce, 500 USD lower than the previous forecast of 5,400 USD/ounce.
However, this investment bank still believes that gold still has room to increase in the second half of the year, only that the increase will be lower than previous forecasts.
In the latest report, two experts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven of Goldman Sachs said that the long-term outlook for gold is still positive, but the risk of short-term correction has increased significantly.
We still maintain an optimistic outlook on gold in the long term, but more cautious in the short term as the market is facing many unfavorable factors," the analysis group said.
Goldman Sachs is one of the organizations with the most optimistic views on gold in recent years. At the end of 2024, this bank once recommended investors to "buy gold" and accurately predicted the subsequent strong price increase of the precious metal.
However, the gold market has faced many difficulties in recent months as expectations of higher interest rates in the US reduce the attractiveness of assets that do not yield yields.
At this week's meeting, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates unchanged but issued tougher signals on inflation. Many Fed members believe that it is still necessary to consider the possibility of raising interest rates this year if price pressure is not controlled.
Goldman Sachs said that this forecast adjustment stems from the bank's new perspective on US monetary policy.
Accordingly, Goldman Sachs economic experts no longer expect the Fed to cut interest rates in 2026 as previously predicted. Instead, the time for policy easing is postponed to June and December next year.
This means that capital inflows into gold ETFs may be lower than previously expected, thereby reducing part of the price increase momentum of the precious metal.
Goldman Sachs also believes that concerns related to the Fed's independence have somewhat eased after the first meeting under the direction of new Chairman Kevin Warsh.
According to experts at this bank, the Fed's tougher stance shows that the current priority is still to control inflation.
In the scenario of the Fed implementing interest rate hikes, Goldman Sachs believes that the demand for holding gold as a policy risk hedge may decline, causing gold prices at the end of the year to be only around 4,400 USD/ounce.
Mr. Rob Kaplan – Goldman Sachs Vice President and former Chairman of the Fed Dallas branch also said that the Fed may have to raise interest rates from September if inflation continues to remain high.
However, Goldman Sachs still sees many supporting factors for gold in the medium and long term, especially buying activities from central banks.
This bank forecasts that the central banking sector will buy about 50 tons of gold per month this year and about 40 tons per month next year.
On the international market, gold is currently trading below the threshold of 4,135 USD/ounce and is heading towards its third consecutive week of decline. After setting a historical peak of nearly 5,600 USD/ounce at the end of January, gold has continuously adjusted in recent months under pressure from a strong USD and expectations of interest rates remaining at a high level.
