Despite the positive economic data just released, along with many motivations and optimistic expectations for 2025, the stock market in the first days of the year has not performed as expected by investors.
The VN-Index decreased along with a sharp decrease in liquidity and foreign investors continued to net sell more than VND 6,600 billion. The average daily trading value only reached VND 11,230 billion, down 39.6% compared to the average in 2024 and down 32.6% compared to the average in January 2024.
According to Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong - Director of Strategic Investment DG Capital, there are many factors that make investors pause investment decisions in the early stages of 2025. One of the biggest concerns now is the economic policies of the new US President Donald Trump. The policies of US President Donald Trump have not been fully announced, causing investors to temporarily "sit still" to wait for clearer signals before making investment decisions.
Commenting on the international macro context in President Donald Trump's next term, Dr. Phuong said that investors are still concerned about the unpredictable economic situation from tax policies that are likely to disrupt the world's trade flow again.
"However, US policies will target Chinese products and companies, rather than other multinational companies or Vietnamese companies. External difficulties are pushing the Government to give higher priority to economic growth through restructuring state management agencies, promoting infrastructure investment and stimulating domestic consumption," Dr. Phuong stated.
Regarding the sharp decline in market liquidity, according to many experts, this is not too worrying, especially before the Tet holiday, which is a long holiday, so investors who use a lot of margin tend to gradually reduce this ratio. This is a seasonal factor, so it is likely that after the Tet holiday, in the context of no negative information occurring, the market will tend to adjust and the cash flow will return more strongly.
Experts from Maybank Securities Company forecast that the total market profit will grow about 17.1% in 2025, slightly higher than the 16.9% in 2024. However, profit growth of industries will be more even than in 2024.
Unlike 2024 - when economic growth depends heavily on external demand (especially the US) through import-export growth, Maybank experts expect economic growth in 2025 to come largely from domestic resources, through the Government promoting investment in infrastructure projects and stimulating domestic consumption through fiscal policies. This will have a more direct impact on listed enterprises such as banks, steel, real estate, retail, etc.
The liquidity of the stock market is also predicted by experts to increase sharply again with an average forecast of about 20,000 billion VND/session. And of course, the event that will have the most impact on the Vietnamese stock market in 2025 is the possibility that FTSE will soon assess the stability of the new mechanism and may officially upgrade the Vietnamese stock market to secondary emerging in September 2025.
This event could help Vietnam attract about 4-5 billion USD from passive and active funds in the coming years. Looking further, based on historical data, MSCI is forecast to follow FTSE and upgrade Vietnam's stock market in 2026-2027. Therefore, the Vietnamese market will soon attract foreign capital to return next year, becoming one of the main drivers for market growth.
