According to forecasts, the ENSO phenomenon is currently in a neutral state but tends to shift to the El Nino phase in the period from June to August 2026 with a probability of over 90%. After that, El Nino continues to develop and is likely to reach intensity from strong to very strong by the end of 2026. This development increases the risk of widespread severe drought in the Southern region in the 2026-2027 dry season.
In the period from June to August 2026, the total rainfall in the South is forecast to be approximately or lower than the multi-year average (MPA).
In Ho Chi Minh City, the average temperature in June is forecast to decrease slightly compared to May but is still commonly close to or higher than the TBNN. The highest temperature fluctuates from 31-34 degrees C, in some places up to 35 degrees C; the lowest temperature is commonly from 24-27 degrees C.
Regarding rainfall, the total rainfall in June is forecast to increase compared to May and be close to the TBNN. The number of days with rain is commonly from 17-23 days.
Stepping into July and August, when El Nino is forecast to remain stable at medium intensity, the weather in the South may show clear contrasting characteristics. On the one hand, the risk of drought in the dry season increases; on the other hand, in the rainy season, there will be more periods of reduced rainfall than the average annually. The forecast number of rain days tends to be lower than the multi-year average, but extreme heavy rains are likely to appear more frequently, accompanied by dangerous weather phenomena such as thunderstorms, tornadoes, lightning and strong gusts of wind.
From September 2026 onwards, when El Nino gradually strengthens and reaches high intensity in the last months of the year, the Southwest monsoon is forecast to be weaker and end earlier than the MYA. Therefore, the 2026 rainy season in the South is likely to end about 7-15 days earlier.
