Basis for expecting the market to change positively
The corporate bond market is facing many challenges such as the structure of issuing enterprises still almost exclusively belongs to the banking and real estate groups, the market lacks diversity, especially the amount of bonds maturing within the next year is up to hundreds of thousands of billions of VND, most of which are real estate bonds with tens of thousands of billions of bonds at risk of late principal repayment.
However, there are still grounds to expect that the market will change more positively in the coming time, such as new regulations on corporate bonds in the revised Securities Law, the real estate market is forecast to flourish from the second quarter of 2025, which will pull the corporate bond market up.
According to Dr. Le Xuan Nghia - an economic expert, one of the two active participants in the corporate bond market is banks, but capital mobilization through the bond channel of banks mainly serves the purpose of increasing Tier 2 capital, thereby increasing mobilization and lending. The second active participant is real estate enterprises. However, they are falling into a difficult situation, causing the corporate bond market to be affected as well. Meanwhile, other domestic enterprises are seriously lacking in capital but cannot participate in the corporate bond "playground" because the term is short (about 3 years) but the interest rate is very high.
“If TPDN continues to rely solely on real estate, next year will still be difficult. This is also an issue we must be vigilant about,” said Mr. Nghia.
According to Mr. Nghia, to solve the current difficulties in the corporate bond market, the first thing to do is to resolve the large real estate projects that are being "shelved" in the provinces and cities.
“Only then will the real estate market flourish, leading to an increase in the corporate bond market,” he said. In addition, Mr. Nghia said that it is necessary to attract more foreign investors to participate in the corporate bond market.
Regarding the recovery period of the real estate market, analyzing the current real estate market situation and forecasting the next period, Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh - Deputy General Director of PropertyGuru Vietnam - said that 2024 is the time of reversal of the real estate market, investors are still cautious and market exploration moves are gradually appearing.
From Q2/2025 to Q4/2025, the market will enter a period of growth. From Q1/2026 to Q4/2026 is the time when the market enters a stable orbit.
New regulations make the market tighter
Regarding the new regulations on the corporate bond market in the amended Securities Law, Dr. Le Xuan Nghia - an economic expert, commented that the amended Securities Law has partly resolved the difficulties and obstacles after the crisis of confidence in the corporate bond market. However, the market structure does not allow corporate bonds to flourish immediately.
Sharing the same view, Mr. Nguyen Khac Hai - Director of Law and Compliance Control Division of SSI Securities Company assessed that the changes in the amended Securities Law related to the corporate bond market will generally help the market develop in a more rigorous direction.
Mr. Hai commented: “The stricter conditions on corporate bonds in the amended Securities Law will help ease the psychology of investors in this market. These changes help pave the way for investors to return to the market, stimulating the inherent excitement of this capital mobilization channel.”
SSI representative also suggested the need to mobilize more foreign investors to diversify the customer base participating in the corporate bond market.
“Previously, opening an account to trade corporate bonds for foreign investors in Vietnam had to comply with very strict regulations. We do not need to issue additional regulations related to this issue, instead, we need to review and amend the regulations to create more favorable conditions for foreign investors to participate in this market,” said Mr. Hai.
