The main story of 2025 and beyond: Rising home prices
At the beginning of 2022, less than 2 years ago, the primary apartment price was around 38 million/m2. But by the third quarter of 2024, the primary price had reached 72 million/m2. In other words, in less than 2 years, the house price has increased by about 48% - this is a number that surprises many people.
But not only that, the story of house prices in 2024 has shocked even those most familiar with the market. Only in 2024, according to data from market research units, house prices increased by about 29% - meaning that house prices in 2024 will really take off and create their own story.
Numbers don't lie. In the real estate market, house prices reflect many things, the biggest of which is the story of supply and demand, along with market trends and opportunities for investors.
Mr. Nguyen Van An, an investor who owns two apartments at the Vinhomes Smart City project, said that just at this growth rate, the two apartments he bought for rent to create cash flow have brought him nearly double the profit (after more than 3 years), while he still has a monthly income.
“I only hope for a stable price increase of about 8-10%/year, plus the rental income, which is very successful, but the increase like the past time, I really did not expect,” said Mr. An.
Similarly, Ms. Hoang Thanh Huyen, an investor who owns two luxury apartments (one on Xuan Thuy Street, one on Pham Van Dong Street) said that when she bought them at the end of 2020 and the beginning of 2021, many people were skeptical because at that time, the apartment price was around 50 million VND/m2, quite high compared to the market. However, the present shows that she was right. Each apartment can now be easily sold for a few dozen more VND/m2, not to mention the profit from renting the house.
The common point of the two investors mentioned above is that they both bought luxury apartments and were surprised by the speed of price increase. And now, both investors are confused about whether to “take profit” or continue to hold on to this very valuable asset.
Basically, the Hanoi apartment market, after many years of relative calm, has really attracted a lot of attention in 2024. In particular, the high-end segment not only shows impressive price increases but is also a segment with good "resistance" to market fluctuations, even when the market is in trouble.
What does the new cycle require from investors?
Let’s go back to the story of the apartment market in recent years. According to Ms. Nguyen Hoai An, Director of CBRE Hanoi, in the period 2009 - 2019, apartment prices in Hanoi increased by an average of 5%/year (equal to the rate of depreciation and inflation), secondary prices were also stable and only increased by about 2%/year, showing that apartment prices in the long term have fluctuated very little.
However, from 2022 to now, apartment prices in Hanoi have increased rapidly, in two stages: Late 2021 - Q3/2022, and from Q3/2022 - now. The reason is that many factors for price increases appear at the same time. That is the large demand in the context of supply shortage, along with the dominance of high-end products, as well as increasingly high input costs.
Housing prices are expected to continue to increase in the coming time.
The real estate market or other investment markets always have winners and losers. And as experts have said, do not try to explain the market, because this is very difficult, the best is to follow it, follow the market, ...
The recent sharp increase in housing prices has caused many investors to flock to this market. This shows why the liquidity of newly launched projects can sometimes reach 80%, even 90%. And as always, when the market is at its peak, information begins to appear that investing in the apartment segment, especially high-end apartments, will be risky. However, experts have their own perspectives.
Mr. Tran Minh Tien, Director of the OneHousing Center for Market Research and Customer Insight, said that the rapid increase in apartment prices in Hanoi in a short period of time may cause a "temporary shock" reaction, but in the journey to 2030, this is just the beginning of a new growth cycle.
Although the Hanoi housing market is gradually becoming more abundant in supply, in reality, the amount of goods that investors can bring to the market is just a drop in the ocean. Every year, Hanoi has more than 160,000 new urban residents, while the housing supply has been congested for a long time. This is an important indicator that housing prices will continue to increase in the future.
Another point, Hanoi has recently issued a new land price list, applicable from December 20, 2024 to December 31, 2025. Notably, compared to the old land price list, the adjusted land price list is 2-6 times higher. The most important factor in the composition of the high, even many times increase in house prices seems to further reinforce the view that the market has entered a new growth phase and the story of basic house prices is still only going in one direction: Price increase!
After the “startled” phase of investors, many people have gradually become accustomed to prices approaching 100 million/m2 of apartments. Along with that, the real estate market is also continuing the screening process, the shadow of weak capacity enterprises is gradually disappearing, the market is gradually truly in the hands of the creators - enterprises with large land funds, methodical project planning, good finance and professional business style.
Real estate has the characteristics of large investment rates and longer cash flow than other fields such as: Securities, gold, etc. Therefore, in the current period, the market not only screens investors, but also investors, if they do not have a good vision and are not steadfast, they can easily be eliminated from the game.
