The real estate market in the first half of 2026 recorded continued supply growth. However, the price level remains high, while capital flows and cost pressure continue to affect the market development process.
According to data from the Vietnam Real Estate Market Research & Evaluation Institute (VARS IRE), in the first 6 months of 2026, the entire market recorded about 98,000 products offered for sale, an increase of 50% compared to the same period last year. New supply reached more than 70,000 products, an increase of about 40%, of which apartments in the high-end segment and above accounted for over 70% of the new commercial apartment supply. The entire market recorded about 48,000 transactions, with about 43,000 transactions coming from new supply.
Although demand is still present, buyers tend to choose projects with transparent legal status, guaranteed implementation progress, good quality, suitable for real housing needs and capable of exploitation and creating cash flow. According to VARS IRE, cash flow in the market is shifting from a "wave-catching" mentality to assessing usage value, exploitation capacity and asset value maintenance level. Products that have not formed utilities, do not create cash flow or mainly depend on price increase expectations will face greater liquidity pressure.
The price level remains high. VARS IRE Price Index data shows that compared to the first quarter of 2019, the average apartment price in Hanoi has increased by about 97%, while apartment prices in Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang are almost flat but continue to remain at a high level. According to VARS IRE, there is not much room for businesses to reduce prices as land costs, compensation, construction, raw materials, capital, legal, management, sales and financial obligations all increase. Instead of directly reducing selling prices, many businesses choose discounts, interest rate support or extend payment schedules to reduce actual costs for buyers.
In addition, capital flows continue to be assessed as an important factor for the new growth cycle of the market. According to the Vietnam Bond Association, in the second half of 2026, there will be about 111,673 billion VND of maturing bonds, of which real estate bonds account for about 54.7%, equivalent to about 61,000 billion VND. VARS IRE believes that diversifying medium and long-term capital sources will help the market gradually reduce dependence on bank credit, while improving the stability of capital flows for projects. This unit also believes that it is necessary to continue to remove bottlenecks in investment procedures, land, planning and construction, and create conditions to access capital for projects with full legal status, meeting real needs.
In Hanoi market alone, One Mount Group Market Research & Customer Understanding Center recorded new supply in Q2/2026 reaching about 9,300 units, up 6% compared to the previous quarter and up more than 23% compared to the same period last year. However, the market only recorded about 7,100 primary transactions, down 3% quarter-on-quarter and down 8% year-on-year. The absorption rate of newly opened projects decreased for the third consecutive quarter, to 50%, reflecting a more cautious buyer sentiment in the context of high price levels and increasing financial pressure.
One Mount Group also said that the price of primary apartments in the central area of Hanoi reached about 121 million VND/m2 in Q2/2026, almost unchanged compared to the previous quarter but still up 46% compared to the same period last year, when the central supply mainly belongs to the high-end and luxury segments.
Mr. Tran Minh Tien - Director of One Mount Group Market Research and Customer Understanding Center - said that legal removal and implementation of amended laws have helped the supply of primary apartments in Q2/2026 maintain at a high level in both Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City. However, the supply structure between the two markets has a clear differentiation. In Hanoi, new supply continues to follow major infrastructure axes and the trend of multi-center development.
