A report by the Vietnam Association of Realtors (VARS) shows that in the past 9 months of 2024, the housing supply in Ho Chi Minh City and neighboring provinces reached about 11,000 products.
Supply mostly comes from the next phase of old projects, of which 69% are apartments, 24% are villas and townhouses.
In the third quarter of this year alone, the real estate supply in Ho Chi Minh City and neighboring provinces only reached more than 2,000 products, of which the housing supply in Ho Chi Minh City accounted for 70% of the total supply in the region.
The absorption rate of new housing supply in Ho Chi Minh City and neighboring provinces in the first 9 months reached about 55%, equivalent to about 6,000 products successfully traded.
Regarding the average selling price of project clusters (projects surveyed by VARS to conduct the report) in Ho Chi Minh City, it increased from VND 49.2 million/m2 to VND 64.2 million/m2, reflecting an increase of 30.6% compared to the end of 2023.
According to experts, the demand for apartments priced under VND2 billion in Ho Chi Minh City is very large, while the supply of new apartments in 2024 is limited.
This pushes up home prices, making it difficult for many people to find suitable housing.
Not only that, according to observations of the real estate market, after the new land price list was issued and officially applied by Ho Chi Minh City, the price level of residential land and land with certificates (books) has increased dramatically.
According to some experts, the new land price list will increase sharply in the short term, causing mixed psychological impacts, both positive and negative.
Although the land price list does not directly affect real estate projects, it will indirectly increase the cost of land fund creation and land use fee payment.
In the context of increasingly narrowing land funds, in the coming time, investors who buy new land funds must conduct compensation for site clearance, the land price will increase and this cost will be included in the selling price, thereby increasing the cost of products.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, believes that the new land price list issued according to market prices will make investment costs more and more expensive. Therefore, it is difficult to expect real estate prices to decrease, but only increase.
Mr. Le Hoang Chau, Chairman of the Ho Chi Minh City Real Estate Association, said that the adjusted land price list has not yet had an immediate impact on the real estate market because current projects are mainly priced using the surplus method.
However, the new land price will affect the market in “phase 2”, when real estate businesses receive land use rights transfers to carry out projects and at this time, people want to sell land at higher prices than before, leading to pressure to increase housing prices.
"Therefore, the State needs to have effective measures to control the activities of speculators, land brokers, dishonest businesses, etc. to avoid taking advantage of the new land price list to "inflate prices", disrupting the market for the purpose of illegal profiteering," Mr. Chau stated his opinion.
