After a period of continuous price increases, the real estate market is showing clear signs of adjustment. Experts predict that the market will enter a new development cycle in a more cautious direction, focusing on meeting real needs, in the context that housing prices have far exceeded the affordability of most people and liquidity shows signs of stagnation.
Mr. Nguyen Van Khoi - Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Association said that real estate prices, especially apartment projects and commercial housing in major cities, are increasing too high compared to the financial capacity of people, including the middle class.
According to Mr. Khoi, the market still has many inadequacies related to land valuation. In addition, speculation has led to waste of land resources, and many abandoned projects have appeared. Market liquidity has also declined as transactions in the first quarter and the first 6 months of 2026 show signs of stagnation, with low transaction volume.
In that context, many real estate businesses are forced to restructure their apparatus and operating methods to adapt to the new developments of the market.
Mr. Khoi believes that in the coming time, the market will shift strongly towards meeting real needs, not only in the housing segment but also in many other types of real estate. Hot development phenomena or virtual land fever will hardly return when legal regulations on speculation prevention become increasingly effective.
The development trend of the market will focus on four key segments including commercial housing, affordable housing, social housing and long-term rental housing.
Agreeing with this view, Ms. Le Hoang Lan Nhu Ngoc - Cushman & Wakefield Co., Ltd. said that current urban planning projects are covering many different types of assets, from data centers to industrial and logistics real estate. However, in the commercial housing segment, especially apartments in major cities, primary prices have far exceeded people's affordability.
According to Ms. Ngoc, with the popular apartment price of 90-100 million VND/m2, a household consisting of a husband and wife may have to spend 50-85 years of accumulation to be able to own a house.
In addition, the trend of investing in apartments for rent has also significantly reduced its attractiveness. If about 10 years ago, the rental profit margin could reach 8-10%, now an apartment worth 10-12 billion VND can only be rented at a price of about 30-40 million VND/month, equivalent to a profit margin of about 3-4%. This makes buying houses for speculative rent no longer a priority choice for many investors.
Forecasting market prospects, Ms. Ngoc said that in the second half of 2026, there will be no land fever. This will be the starting stage of a new development cycle in a more cautious direction. Buyers will consider carefully before spending money, while investors must calculate more carefully to improve liquidity.
Chairman of the Vietnam Valuation Association Nguyen Tien Thoa also predicted that the market in 2026 may enter a new cycle with a focus on the development of segments serving real needs and being more selective. According to him, the period of unreasonable price fever may end, although real estate prices are unlikely to fall deeply. Speculation and price inflation are likely to decline, while some segments may stagnate or adjust slightly.
Mr. Thoa believes that this trend stems from two main reasons. The first is the improvement in supply and demand when many social housing and affordable commercial housing projects are being promoted to develop. The second is the impact from the State's policies in removing legal obstacles, handling conflicts and overlaps of the legal system, and credit for the market has also shown positive adjustment signals.
