Supply improves but prices are difficult to reduce
Market research data from Knight Frank Vietnam shows that the average primary price of apartments in Ho Chi Minh City in 2025 reached nearly 96 million VND per square meter, an increase of 8.8% compared to the same period in 2024. In which, nearly 60% of the goods opened for sale cost over 100 million VND per square meter, the rest is mainly at over 60 million VND per square meter.
Reality records show that from the beginning of 2025 to now, many large investors have continuously launched high-end projects in the central area of Ho Chi Minh City. In a radius of 4-5km around the Thu Thiem new urban area and the central area, there are almost no projects priced below 100 million VND/m2.
Not only that, the price increase has also begun to spread to neighboring localities, not just the central area of Ho Chi Minh City.
For example, according to data from Batdongsan.com.vn, the Ba Ria - Vung Tau area after being merged into Ho Chi Minh City currently has an average apartment price of about 54 million VND/m2 per square meter in this area, an increase of 48% compared to the price level of 36 million VND/m2 in 2024. With the current price level, Ba Ria - Vung Tau is the second most expensive apartment area in the South, only after Ho Chi Minh City.
It is worth mentioning that house prices in the Southern region increased amid improved supply after many years of sluggishness.
According to CBRE, the total new supply in 5 key localities is approximately 26,000 products, double that of 2024. Binh Duong (old) leads with 15,800 apartments, Tay Ninh about 2,000 apartments, Dong Nai 600 apartments. Ho Chi Minh City (old) recorded about 7,600 apartments, an increase of 50% compared to the previous year.
High-end real estate accounts for a large proportion
Ms. Duong Thuy Dung, CEO of CBRE Vietnam, explained that although the real estate supply has improved, prices are still high because most of the new baskets belong to the high-end and luxury segments, pulling the general level up while the supply of mid-range and affordable housing continues to be scarce. In the old Ho Chi Minh City area alone, 90% of the baskets opened for sale in 2025 belong to the high-end and luxury segments. This rate in the old Binh Duong is about 60%. For the Long An area before, a series of new projects were opened for sale at prices of 40-60 million VND/m2, pushing the area level up sharply.
This is making real homebuyers, especially middle-income groups, almost have no choice. This contributes to pushing up the housing price level and increasing the gap between real needs and people's affordability. As of 2025, Vietnamese people need an average of 25.8 years of income to buy an apartment, ranking 9th out of more than 100 countries surveyed, showing that access to housing is increasingly difficult.
Real estate experts also worry that there will still be risks for the high-end segment if prices are pushed too far with real purchasing power. Bubbles may appear even in the context of supply shortages when speculators hoard goods, expect short-term profits and capital flowing into the market exceeding absorption.
Looking back at the period 2007-2011 when the domestic market increased prices too quickly, credit tightened and transactions were almost frozen. Currently, the upward momentum of high-end and luxury apartment prices has not shown signs of stopping, while transactions lean more towards speculation, less based on real housing needs.
When the price far exceeds the ability to pay, the market may enter a state of saturation, sellers do not want to reduce prices, buyers are wary of risks and liquidity weakens. This is a bad scenario but can completely happen if the price continues to rise to an unreasonable level of 200-250 million VND per square meter that is not commensurate with product quality and average income.
