Real estate market liquidity tends to decrease
According to the Vietnam Real Estate Market Evaluation Research Institute (VARS IRE), the development of credit capital flows has become an important factor affecting the pace of the real estate market.
The State Bank's report shows that as of December 31, 2025, outstanding credit for the real estate sector of credit institutions reached about 4.74 million billion VND, an increase of 36.24% compared to December 31, 2024, higher than the general credit growth rate of the economy and accounting for 25.53% of the total outstanding debt of the entire system. In which, outstanding credit for real estate business activities reached about 2.16 million billion VND, accounting for 45.58% of the total outstanding credit for real estate, an increase of 49.55% compared to the end of 2024, equivalent to a growth rate of about 1.85 times the growth rate of outstanding credit for real estate consumption.
Faced with the reality of rapid real estate credit growth, the State Bank has requested credit institutions to tightly control credit growth right from the beginning of 2026. Accordingly, credit balance in the first 3 months of the year must not exceed 25% of the full-year growth target (at a level of about 15%).
In the context of tightly controlled credit, many commercial banks, especially state-owned banks, have simultaneously adjusted real estate lending interest rates to significantly higher levels than the average for consumer or production and business lending.
VARS IRE believes that interest rate hikes in this period have both become a test of market "tolerance" and a natural screening mechanism for investment models heavily reliant on financial leverage.
Research data from VARS IRE shows that real estate liquidity is trending downwards, especially in areas that once grew "hot", when cash flow no longer seeks quick profits but prioritizes safety, stability and risk control. In that context, the sharp increase in home loan interest rates forced the real estate market into a "natural purification" phase, where investment models based on high leverage and short-term expectations gradually reveal risks.
Accordingly, from the end of October 2025 to now, the general level of home loan interest rates has increased sharply, creating significant pressure on borrowers. Many banks apply post-preferential interest rates at 12-14%/year, even at times up to 16%/year. Meanwhile, not long before that, many customers participated in loan packages with "bait" interest rates of only 5-6%/year but a short fixed period, only 3-6 months. When switching to floating interest rates, the actual cost of capital skyrocketed, causing initial financial calculations to be reversed, especially for individuals taking advantage of "surfing" preferential loan packages.
Structural risk still lies in the delay factor. The home buying group in the 2023-2024 period still has a certain safety margin despite the increase in interest rates. However, risks may be more clearly revealed in the 2027-2028 period, when the buying group in 2025, at a high price level and using large leverage, simultaneously expires the principal debt grace period and interest rate incentives. If income does not increase correspondingly and the market has no room to increase prices strongly enough, financial pressure will become clearer.
Changes in homebuyers' behavior
According to VARS IRE, the sharp increase in financial costs is also changing the behavior of both real homebuyers and investors. First-time homebuyers and young households tend to delay decisions, continue renting houses or move to areas far from the center, where prices are about 30% lower.
On the investor side, the group with average financial potential, heavily dependent on borrowed capital, is shifting to a state of observation and defense, causing market liquidity to slow down and cash flow to become more selective. However, not all cash flow has withdrawn from the market. The group of investors with good financial capacity and low leverage ratios continues to deposit money, but with stricter criteria: products must be suitable for financial capacity, have clear legal status and prioritize the ability to create stable rental cash flow, instead of just expecting price increases.
VARS IRE believes that in the new context, the advantage will belong to individuals and organizations with real financial capacity and long-term thinking. Opportunities still exist for investors to choose products with prices commensurate with the exploitation value, especially in areas benefiting from clear infrastructure and planning.
Investment decisions no longer revolve around the story of how much the price will increase, but must be considered on a combination of factors, from the ability to create stable rental cash flow, financial safety margins, to the potential to increase value associated with infrastructure development, planning and the actual quality of life of the region.
