High loan interest rates, more cautious market sentiment
Recently, the general level of home loan interest rates at many commercial banks has shown signs of increasing again. If in the 2024-2025 period, preferential home loan interest rates were commonly only about 6-8%/year, currently, many banks have adjusted to about 8-10%/year during the preferential period. After the preferential period ends, floating interest rates can reach 12-14%/year, depending on each loan package and each bank.
Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh - Deputy General Director of Batdongsan. com. vn - said that interest rates are one of the factors that have a very large impact on the real estate market, besides the legal framework and the psychology of buyers.
Mr. Quoc Anh said that, according to a survey by Batdongsan. com. vn, about 60-70% of people participating in real estate transactions use financial leverage. If last year the general interest rate was only about 5-6%, now it has nearly doubled.
In that context, homebuyers who do not have enough money and have to use financial leverage will have to consider very carefully before deciding to spend money. The buyer's calculation first of all relates to debt repayment ability. When interest rates can reach 14-15%, or even higher, borrowers need to consider whether they can guarantee debt repayment obligations in the near future" - Mr. Quoc Anh said.
Mr. Nguyen Quoc Anh said that currently, concerns have appeared quite clearly in the market. However, this is not reflected in the sharp decrease in search demand, but reflected in the difference between the amount of interest and the actual transaction volume.
According to data from Batdongsan. com. vn, if Tet Nguyen Dan is used as a benchmark, then in the first week after Tet this year, the number of people interested in real estate increased by about 200% compared to last year, while last year this number was 151%.
These figures show that the number of people interested in the real estate market after Tet this year is still increasing and even somewhat better than the same period in 2025. However, when looking deeper into the data related to the number of people directly contacting brokers, this number tends to be lower" - Mr. Quoc Anh assessed.
According to Mr. Quoc Anh, this reflects the reality that demand still exists, but buyers must consider more carefully, especially before factors such as price levels and home loan interest rates.
In that context, the general psychology of the current market is to wait. Buyers can continue to observe the market in the last quarters of the year to see the developments of the interest rate level before making a decision.
Homebuyers need to consider their financial capacity
On the homebuyer side, Mr. Quoc Anh said that the lessons from the 2022-2023 period are still valuable. At that time, interest rates had increased by about 15-16% from the end of 2022 and lasted until about the third quarter of 2023 before starting to decrease. In the period of nearly a year, many homebuyers faced difficulties when real estate was difficult to sell but loan interest still had to be paid, leading to a situation where they had assets but lacked cash flow.
According to him, in the current context, there may be opportunities to buy real estate at better prices, because some sellers are under financial pressure to sell quickly at lower prices.
However, the more important thing is the financial plan. Buyers need to build a financial plan for about 3-5 years, carefully consider income flows and loan interest payment capacity. When deciding to borrow money, buyers need to consider the possibility of interest rate fluctuations to assess whether their cash flow is sufficient to pay off debts.
If previously many people could borrow when they only had about 30-40% of their own capital, then in the current context, they may need 60-70% of their own capital, and the rest will only borrow a smaller amount to ensure debt repayment capacity. In case of insufficient cash flow, buyers can consider temporarily renting a house instead of borrowing too much.
Mr. Quoc Anh believes that the beginning of the year can be seen as a "start-up" period for the market, and may last until the end of the second quarter of 2026. If in the third quarter of 2026 and the fourth quarter of 2026, the interest rate level is more stable and macroeconomic factors are more positive, trading volume in the market may return and even improve compared to the same period.
