The housing real estate market in the first quarter of 2026 recorded mixed developments when primary selling prices continued to increase sharply, but liquidity showed signs of stagnation and the secondary market appeared with localized price decrease transactions.
This development shows that the market is entering a correction phase after a previous hot uptrend cycle.
According to Ms. Pham Thi Mien - Deputy Director of the Vietnam Real Estate Market Assessment Research Institute (VARS IRE), in the first quarter of 2026, the whole country had about 52,000 commercial housing products for sale. New supply reached about 38,000 products, slightly decreased compared to the previous quarter but still 2.5 times higher than the same period in 2025.
The entire market recorded more than 24,000 transactions, corresponding to a primary supply absorption rate of 47%, down 10% compared to the previous quarter but up 2% compared to the same period last year. Notably, projects with more competitive prices than the general level still maintain an absorption rate of nearly 100%, showing that the price factor continues to play a decisive role in buyer behavior.
In the transaction structure, the apartment segment continues to play a leading role when contributing up to 69% of the total transaction volume. Real housing demand is still the main driving force of the market, helping the absorption rate of new supply of this segment reach 60%, equivalent to about 15,000 transactions, although down 13% compared to the previous quarter.
Regarding selling prices, apartments continue the strong upward trend in major cities. In Hanoi, the average primary price reached about 128 million VND/m2, an increase of 28% compared to 2025, with newly opened projects mainly in the luxury segment. If adding supply from Hung Yen, the average price of new projects is about 87 million VND/m2.
In Ho Chi Minh City, the average primary price remains around 110 million VND/m2, equivalent to the previous year. Meanwhile, in Da Nang, the average primary price reached about 91 million VND/m2, an increase of 10% compared to 2025, when more luxury projects appeared in the market and subsequent sales phases all adjusted to increase prices.
In contrast to the primary market, the secondary market is starting to record a downward trend compared to the peak in September-October 2025, and liquidity is showing more cautious signs. In the high-end apartment segment, loss-cutting transactions have appeared, although the number is not large due to financial pressure not reaching the level of forced sell-off, while long-term growth expectations are still maintained.
In the residential real estate industry report of VPBank Securities Joint Stock Company (VPBankS, code: VPX) also identified this situation. Accordingly, the market is currently experiencing a localized price decrease due to secondary investors making losses. This may create a spillover effect, pulling the price level in some suburban areas of Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City down.
However, the price decrease mainly focuses on projects outside the central area. Conversely, house prices in the core urban area are forecast to still maintain a slight upward trend thanks to the advantage of location and limited supply.
According to Ms. Do Thu Hang, Senior Director of Savills Hanoi Research and Consulting Department, in 2026, the market is expected to have about 18,454 new apartments, mainly in the mid-range and high-end segments. Neighboring areas such as Hung Yen and Bac Ninh are expected to play an increasingly important role in meeting housing needs in Hanoi, thanks to the advantages of land funds and connecting infrastructure.
In Ho Chi Minh City, the supply of the mid-range segment continues to be scarce, causing buyers to tend to move to suburban areas and neighboring provinces such as Binh Duong, where there are more suitable options in terms of price. The development of large-scale urban projects and inter-regional infrastructure systems are promoting the trend of expanding the housing market space.
In the period 2026-2028, the Ho Chi Minh City apartment market is expected to add about 58,000 units from 80 projects, of which the East area accounts for about 50% of the supply and continues to play a leading role.
