Large supply pours into the market, mainly the high-end segment
Apartment prices in major cities continue to increase in the context of new supply gradually improving, but mainly concentrated in the mid-range and high-end segments. This makes the opportunity to own a house for low-income people increasingly narrow, while changing the trend of investment cash flow in the real estate market.
According to data from Savills, 2025 recorded the highest supply of new apartments in the past 5 years, mainly from the mid-range segment. Selling prices still maintain an upward trend, with an average primary price of about 102 million VND/m2. Products priced from 4 billion VND or more account for a large proportion, showing that a new price level is gradually being established.
According to Ms. Do Thu Hang, Senior Director of Research and Consulting Department of Savills Hanoi, market momentum is improving but supply is still mainly concentrated in the mid-range segment. Expanding infrastructure can help open up more opportunities to develop public housing products at more reasonable prices.
In 2026, the market is expected to welcome about 18,454 new apartments, mainly in the high-end and mid-range segments. Neighboring areas such as Hung Yen and Bac Ninh are expected to play an increasingly important role in solving unmet needs in Hanoi thanks to their advantages in land fund and connecting infrastructure.
In Ho Chi Minh City, the supply of the mid-range segment is increasingly scarce, and buyers are predicted to gradually shift to suburban areas and neighboring provinces such as Binh Duong, where there are more choices in terms of prices. The development of large-scale mega-urban projects and inter-regional connecting infrastructure systems is promoting the trend of expanding the housing market outside the central area.
It is forecasted that in the period 2026-2028, the Ho Chi Minh City apartment market is expected to add about 58,000 units from 80 projects, of which the East area accounts for about 50% of the supply and continues to play a leading role in the market.
Mr. Troy Griffiths - Deputy General Director of Savills Vietnam said that the apartment market is showing a recovery in liquidity, but supply is still limited and concentrated in high-priced segments, creating differentiation between groups of buyers.
The supply structure of apartments is strongly leaning towards the mid-range and high-end segments, while the affordable housing segment is scarce. As the price level continuously increases, the dream of owning a house for many people with average and low incomes is becoming increasingly distant, especially in large cities.
Efforts to improve the supply of affordable housing
Dr. Nguyen Van Dinh - Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Real Estate Association said that 2026 will be a period when the market directly benefits from the Government's efforts to remove legal obstacles and promote public investment. With a disbursement plan of about 1 million billion VND for infrastructure, the market is not only vibrant in major cities but also spreading to new economic regions.
According to Mr. Dinh, in the overall picture, the housing segment still plays a key role thanks to the State's attention. The 1 million social housing program is recording progress with the goal of completion by 2028 and is expected to reach about 1.5 million units by 2030, exceeding the initial plan.
He also believes that the combination of policies to unlock supply and credit growth maintained at about 15% is creating a favorable environment for the market. Quality projects and real estate types from industry to retail can maintain stable growth momentum in 2026.
In the long term, the completion of the legal framework, removal of obstacles in project development and the completion of large infrastructure projects are expected to contribute to improving supply, in which urban development models associated with public transport may open up additional housing supply along key infrastructure axes.
Investment thinking changes, cash flow shifts
High house prices are also strongly impacting the cash flow trend in the real estate market. In fact, in the current market, a remarkable shift has taken place when investment cash flow no longer pours into projects that are expected to increase in price, but shifts to assets that can create stable cash flow.
An investment wave is heading towards real estate in large cities and areas with developed infrastructure, where the value of assets is not only in the ability to increase prices but also in the ability to lease and exploit cash flow. This is considered a shift from speculative thinking to value investment.
Mr. Nguyen Van Hung, a real estate broker with more than 15 years of experience in Hanoi, said that high house prices in recent years have also significantly changed real estate investment thinking. Previously, many investors bought houses mainly waiting for price increases to resell, but now they are more interested in the ability of assets to bring compound profits, both creating monthly cash flow and expecting to increase value in the long term.
According to Mr. Hung, apartments in large urban areas, areas near ring roads, industrial parks, universities or major traffic routes are often sought after by investors because they are easy to rent and have good occupancy rates. Investors are now also more cautious, carefully calculating the efficiency of asset exploitation instead of buying based on the psychology of surfing like in the previous period.
