According to report data from FiinGroup, about VND102,000 billion of corporate bonds (except banks) are due for payment in the second half of this year. This figure is double in the first half of the year (44,400 billion VND), showing the pressure on existing payment cash flow. With a large proportion, real estate businesses need 65,300 billion VND to mature bonds in the second half of the year.
maturity pressure peaked in August with VND36 trillion of maturing bonds, the highest level of the year. Among these, according to the assessment of VIS Rating credit rating agency, there are 1.2 trillion VND of high-risk bonds that are late for the first payment. These bonds are issued by 2 real estate companies with credit records at the "Extremely weak" level.
In addition, VND14,400 billion of maturing bonds have been delayed in paying coupon interest, including VND10,500 billion from 4 companies related to Van Thinh Phat Group. The other bonds are issued by Novaland, Trung Nam and Hai Phat - these are all enterprises in the process of restructuring debt.
Commenting on the bond market in the medium term, the analysis team of S&I Ratings believes that financial pressure on real estate businesses will still be there in the next 12-18 months. This comes from the large maturity value in the second half of this year, combined with nearly VND143,000 billion of bonds maturing in 2026.
The pressure to repay debt is present but S&I Ratings expects the value of bond issuance to increase sharply in the coming time. The Government's acceleration to remove legal obstacles for real estate projects, according to the analysis team, will create conditions for businesses to restore project implementation and improve cash flow.
"When the project is legally cleared and eligible for implementation, businesses can use the project as collateral to borrow from banks. The project is allowed to be implemented, also facilitating them to open for sale soon and have a financial plan to repay the debt to bondholders", said an expert from S&I.
In the industry outlook report for the third quarter of 2025, BIDV Securities Company (BSC) gave positive reviews for the commercial real estate industry in 2025. With the argument that, when supporting factors are still maintained, such as project legal issues being accelerated to help new supply recover; favorable macro conditions including a low interest rate environment, public investment..., BSC believes that investors' cash flow will be unblocked again and industry profits from core business activities will improve in the second half of this year.
BSC cited data from the Ministry of Construction showing that in the first quarter of 2025, the whole country had 26 projects with 15,780 newly licensed products and 59 projects with 19,760 products eligible for sale. Signs of legal "untiedness" continue to be strengthened in the second quarter of 2025 when projects with complex problems are resolved in large numbers; in terms of planning and investment policies such as AquaCity (Dong Nai), NovaWorld Phan Thiet (Binh Thuan, now Lam Dong province); in terms of land use fees such as Casimia Balanca (Quang Nam, now Da Nang city), Lakeview, The Water Bay (HCMC)...
