We have 5 more matches. Very difficult, everyone understands this is a challenging period, but there are still 15 points and this team is completely capable of winning all 5 matches." That is the message that Roberto De Zerbi gave after Tottenham's regretful draw against Brighton, when they missed the victory in the last minutes of injury time.
For the first time in a long time, Spurs have reason to hope. That is their best performance in the whole season. Tottenham controlled the ball well, coordinated attacks coherently, pressed fiercely and created enough opportunities to decide the match. They led 2-1 when entering the fifth minute of injury time, but still could not preserve the advantage. The first victory in the Premier League in 2026 is therefore still out of reach.
However, this positive performance convinced De Zerbi that the team could reverse the situation. The message "5 matches, five wins" may be more encouraging than reality, but that is the goal that Tottenham must aim for.
After West Ham's 0-0 draw against Crystal Palace, the gap to the safe position is only 2 points - a number that is not impossible to close, although the task ahead is extremely difficult. Especially for a team that has gone through a 15-match winless streak, the longest in their history in the Premier League.
De Zerbi believes that is possible, and what he witnessed against Brighton partly strengthens that belief. In just over two weeks of work, the Italian strategist has made significant changes, and Tottenham may consider themselves unlucky not to win all 3 points. For the first time in 11 matches in the Premier League, they created a higher expected goal index than their opponent, even though the gap is only 0.27 xG.
In fact, winning all 5 of the last matches is almost beyond Spurs' ability. A team that only wins 7 out of 33 matches this season can hardly explode perfectly under great pressure. Statistics also do not support them. No team in the relegation zone has ever won all 5 rounds to stay in the league.
However, Tottenham may not need 5 wins. In Premier League history, reaching the 40-point mark to stay in the league is not always necessary, and Spurs currently have 31 points. Three more wins may be enough, a much more realistic goal. There have been many cases where relegation teams won 3 or 4 last matches to escape danger, typically Fulham and Bolton in the 2007-2008 season or Sunderland in the 2013-2014 season.
The most notable example is probably Swansea in the 2016-2017 season, when they ranked 18th after 33 rounds, 2 points behind the safe group - a situation almost similar to Tottenham's current situation. Swansea won 4 and drew 1 in the last 5 matches to spectacularly stay in the league. Spurs' schedule this season also has similarities, as they have to face opponents from many different groups in the rankings, creating both opportunities and challenges.
Tottenham's biggest problem is that they do not completely have the right to self-determination. West Ham and Nottingham Forest are both maintaining stable form, while Leeds are almost safe. However, Spurs have a certain advantage in terms of schedule compared to direct competitors.
To stay in the league, Tottenham needs more than effort. They need to improve their form strongly, maximize opportunities, limit mistakes in defense and also a bit of luck. Mistakes like Xavi Simons' shot hitting the post cannot be repeated if they want to reverse the situation.
