No team wants to be relegated, but dramatic relegation races always have a special attraction.
In recent seasons, the Premier League has rarely witnessed such an exciting survival battle, but the 2025-2026 season is gathering all the elements to become one of the most memorable campaigns.
The tournament becomes more unpredictable than ever, as any team can defeat their opponent, and the relegation race is not only a story of newcomers but also the participation of big names.
Leeds United, Nottingham Forest, Tottenham Hotspur and West Ham are all struggling to avoid falling into the Championship, making the relegation battle no less intense than the championship race.
Meanwhile, Wolves and Burnley are almost left behind. With a gap of 13 and 10 points respectively compared to the safe group, their chances of staying in the league are very slim. According to the most recent simulation by Opta supercomputer, both teams have been relegated by 99.9%.
According to forecasts, West Ham is the team facing the biggest risk in the remaining group. Nuno Espirito Santo's team is assessed to have a 58.7% chance of relegation, partly reflecting unstable form and a difficult schedule ahead. However, if they beat Wolves at home, the situation could change significantly.
Tottenham is also only one point ahead of West Ham. The fact that a big club like Spurs is facing the risk of relegation is shocking, but not entirely surprising if you look at their turbulent season. The appearance of Roberto De Zerbi is expected to create a turning point, and according to simulation, Spurs will still stay in the league for most of the scenario when they only have a 26.2% risk of relegation.
Nottingham Forest has also changed coaches four times this season, with Vitor Pereira as the latest. The 3-0 victory over Tottenham helps them improve their position, and the supercomputer only predicts them to be relegated by 8.7%. However, having to divide forces for the Europa League may affect their performance in the domestic league.
Leeds United is again facing a big problem in scoring when they are silent in 4 consecutive matches in the Premier League. However, the 2 recent draws still helped them accumulate points, and the penalty victory against West Ham in the FA Cup brought a morale boost. With a schedule considered easier, Leeds is only predicted to be relegated by 6.5%.
40 points to stay in the league" is a familiar saying in the Premier League, but the reality is not entirely so. The figure is closer to reality than 39 points.
Statistics show that since the Premier League narrowed down to 20 teams in 1995, the average score of the 18th-placed team is 38.1. This means that reaching 39 points is usually enough to secure a relegation spot.
However, this season may be an exception. The last time a team ranked 18th had a score similar to the current West Ham (29 points after 31 matches) was in the 2012-2013 season. At that time, Wigan Athletic had 30 points before the last 7 rounds but only won 6 more points and had to be relegated. Although Wigan is still distracted by the FA Cup, West Ham no longer has this factor after being eliminated by Leeds in the quarter-finals.
Part of the reason why teams may be subjective is because in recent seasons, relegation points have decreased significantly.
Even last season, Leicester City was relegated with only 25 points - the lowest in Premier League history for this position.
However, that scenario is unlikely to be repeated in the current season, when West Ham has 29 points and still has 7 rounds ahead. It is highly likely that the 17th-placed team will need to approach the 40-point mark, even higher, to secure a relegation spot.
Notably, the last time the team ranked 18th achieved 40 points or more was in the 2002-2003 season. And that name was West Ham with 42 points.
According to predictions from Opta, West Ham may finish the season in 18th place with 37 points, while Tottenham is right above with 38 points.
