Arsenal are temporarily leading Man City by 7 points but have played 1 more match. Last round, City unfortunately drew with Nottingham, making the journey to win the 7th Premier League silver cup for the Etihad home team more difficult.
Looking back at Man City's draw in the previous round, it can be seen that sometimes statistics cannot make the final result. At one point, The Citizens controlled the ball up to 84%, reaching an expected goal difference (xG) of up to 2.2, compared to only 0.97 for the opponent, but in the end the score was still 2-2.
Contrary to Man City, Arsenal won minimally against Brighton in a match without many dangerous situations. However, for Mikel Arteta's team at this time, it is not worth worrying about, 3 points are the most important. Their only goal came from the only shot on target in the first 45 minutes.
Fabian Hurzeler of Brighton complained after the match about Arsenal's deliberate time-wasting. Despite those negative comments, it cannot be denied that Arsenal is the most stable team in the Premier League in all competitions when they have only lost 3 times since the beginning of the season after 46 matches.
Expected goal difference excluding penalties (xGD) is a convincing indicator of actual performance, showing how many scoring chances a team has created compared to the number of situations they conceded. No team is really close to Arsenal in this regard, a team that always creates more chances than the opponent.
Meanwhile, Pep Guardiola's team often concedes goals when counter-attacked by opponents. In the last 7 seasons, this season is the time when Pep's team has received the most shots from the opponent every time they counter-attack. This rate is currently an average of 0.9 shots per 90 minutes.
This situation is repeating itself similar to the mid-season period before when Man City suffered continuous pressure from counter-attacks when the opponent could easily penetrate The Citizens' midfield. This is a consequence of Rodri's injury taking too long off.
After that, Pep was forced to add more fitness machines in the midfield area in the winter transfer window. Man City sometimes traded possession as usual by using fitness to overwhelm opponents.
This season, Man City has been more comfortable adapting based on Erling Haaland, Antoine Semenyo and Gianluigi Donnarumma to create decisive moments in the match. However, that approach may backfire, especially when the number of chances they concede is increasing.
This is no longer the scary Man City version, controlling everything as before, even though they have enough firepower to defeat any team on a beautiful day. However, a more open playing style means they are more likely to make mistakes than usual.
In terms of passes in the penalty area to score, Man City and Arsenal are also competing. Antoine Semenyo's goal against Nottingham last week came from Ryan Cherki's pass in this way. This is Man City's 11th goal since the beginning of the season in the Premier League according to such a formula after 53 chances.
Meanwhile, Arsenal has scored 7 goals in this way from 62 chances. Creating so many chances like this may help the "Gunners" because David Moyes' Everton will tend to play deep at the Emirates this weekend. Arsenal players have good technique, so penetrating the opponent's penalty area and creating breakthroughs from such passes is not too difficult.
This week, Man City will be guests at West Ham's Olympic stadium, in the context that the home team has seen increasingly bright chances of relegation. Although still considered the favorite team, looking at West Ham's form at this time, it cannot be underestimated. Since Nuno Santo was appointed as captain at the end of September 2025, The Hammers are the 5th team to score the most goals in the league.
According to Opta, Man City's next 5 opponents are easier than Arsenal based on the strength rankings of this statistical website. Of course, matches in the FA Cup and Champions League, depending on the severity, may affect the performance of both Man City and Arsenal in the Premier League arena.
Finally, after analyzing all the indicators, Opta predicts that Arsenal has a 93% chance of winning the Premier League this season. Man City may beat Arsenal in the upcoming Premier League match, but Opta still maintains its point of view and chooses The Gunners as the champion after 22 years of waiting.
