Overview
Vitor Pereira can hardly dream of a more favorable start at Nottingham Forest. Right in his debut match, he witnessed his new team defeat his old club - Fenerbahce - with a convincing 3-0 victory in the first leg of the Europa League knockout round.
Goals from Murillo, Igor Jesus and Morgan Gibbs-White helped Forest put one foot in the round of 16. That was their biggest away win in a major European tournament, and also the first time since November 1995 they had won in the knockout round (1-0 against Lyon in the UEFA Cup).
Forest dominated comprehensively, 23 shots compared to Fenerbahce's 6, total xG reached 2.74 and only allowed the opponent to launch two shots in the first half. This is the lowest number Fenerbahce has ever had at home in the Europa League.
However, Pereira's start in the Premier League was not smooth. Forest lost 0-1 to Liverpool, with Alexis Mac Allister's late goal after he was once denied a goal for a hand touch.
That defeat leaves Forest only 2 points ahead of the relegation group. But the great advantage against Fenerbahce gives them the opportunity to temporarily put aside domestic pressure to regain confidence at City Ground.
The contrast between the two arenas is clear. Forest kept a clean sheet in the last 3 home matches in the Europa League, with a clean sheet rate in European leagues reaching 65% (17/26 matches). Among the teams with more than 20 home matches, only Sampdoria and Ipswich Town (both 67%) achieved a higher rate.
They have scored 18 goals in the Europa League this season - only less than the 1978-1979 Champions League campaign (19 goals).
In the European arena this season, Igor Jesus is the most prominent name. He is co-leading the scoring list with Petar Stanic, with 7 goals. Jesus scores an average of one goal per 54 minutes in the Europa League. Conversely, in the Premier League, he only has 2 goals after 757 minutes of play - much lower than xG 4.31. Meanwhile, 7 goals in Europe come from a total of xG 4.9, showing extremely high finishing efficiency.
He also surpassed Gary Birtles' (1978-1979) record of 6 goals in a European season, becoming Forest's most effective scorer in a continental campaign.
History does not favor the Turkish representative. Fenerbahce has never advanced in 26 first-leg defeats in European knockout rounds.
Last weekend, they drew 1-1 with Kasımpasa, missing the opportunity to equalize points with Galatasaray in Super Lig. Domenico Tedesco's team is still unbeaten after 23 domestic matches, but 8 draws make them 2 points behind Galatasaray.
With a 3-goal advantage, Pereira can rotate the force before the match against Brighton in the Premier League. Lorenzo Lucca may be given a chance to start, while James McAtee and Dilane Bakwa hope to score points with the new coach.
Gibbs-White - who scored and assisted in the first leg - may have maintained his fitness, but Forest certainly does not want to lose the momentum, especially at home.
With their current form in Europe, City Ground is becoming a solid support. And if nothing unexpected happens, Nottingham Forest will continue the impressive revival story under Pereira.
Head-to-head record
Last week's match was only the second official encounter between Nottingham Forest and Fenerbahce in the European arena.
However, history when facing English representatives does not stand on the side of the Turkish team. Fenerbahce has lost 7 of the last 10 matches against English teams, winning only 1 victory.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Fenerbahce
The match between Nottingham Forest and Fenerbahce takes place at 3:00 AM on February 27 (Vietnam time).
