Although Arsenal is not required to defeat Manchester City, a victory at the Etihad will bring them very close to the Premier League title. So what happens if they draw or even lose?
Below is an analysis of three main scenarios, based on simulations from the Opta supercomputer.
If Arsenal beats Man City
Champions rate: Arsenal 98% - Man City 2%
According to Opta, this is a balanced match when Arsenal has a 35.8% chance of winning and Man City has a 37.7% chance in 10,000 simulations.
Victory is not a mandatory condition, but it will help Arsenal put one hand on the cup. If they win all 3 points, they will be 9 points ahead of Man City when the season is only 6 rounds left.
In that case, coach Mikel Arteta's team only needs to add a maximum of 10 points in the last 5 matches to win the championship for the first time since the 2003-2004 season.
Head-to-head record also brings confidence to the away team. Arsenal is unbeaten in the last 5 matches against Man City in the Premier League (2 wins, 3 draws), ending a 12-match losing streak before that.
If the two teams draw
Champions rate: Arsenal 89% - Man City 11%
Etihad has always been a difficult destination. Man City is unbeaten in the last 14 home matches in the Premier League and has not lost to Arsenal at home since 2015 (7 wins, 3 draws).
A draw will help Arsenal keep a 6-point gap - enough to maintain self-determination. Even if Man City wins a rescheduled match, they still need Arsenal to stumble at least once in the last 5 rounds.
Notably, a rare scenario may occur. If the two teams draw 1-1 and end the season with all indicators equal (points, goal difference, goals, head-to-head), the Premier League may have to organize a play-off match for the championship - something that has never happened in history.
If Man City wins
Champions rate: Arsenal 69% - Man City 31%
A victory for coach Pep Guardiola's team will ignite the championship race.
The gap will be narrowed to 3 points, while Man City still has one match to play. In addition, they also significantly improved the goal difference - a factor that could be decisive.
However, Arsenal is still rated higher. The reason is that their remaining schedule is easier than Man City's, according to Opta's strength ranking.
Even if they lose, The Gunners still have more than 2/3 chance of winning the championship in the simulations. This is a number that shows that the current advantage is still large enough.
In summary, the match at the Etihad is not an early final, but it will be an important turning point. Arsenal may not need to win to win the championship, but if they do, they will almost close the race. Conversely, a defeat will open up a breathtaking scenario to the final rounds.
Regardless of the outcome, the Premier League title race this season is still coming to an end in the most dramatic way.
The match between Man City and Arsenal takes place at 10:30 p.m. on April 19 (Vietnam time).
