Liam Rosenior had a positive start at Chelsea. He won easily against Brentford, Pafos, Crystal Palace and Wolves, and had more dramatic away matches against Napoli and won 3 valuable points at home against West Ham.
Losing to Arsenal in both Carabao Cup semi-final matches is disappointing, a missed opportunity, but partly understandable. However, losing the home lead against Leeds United and Burnley, leading to 2 consecutive draws in the Premier League, changed the situation.
After losing 4 points from 2 home matches, as Rosenior admitted, real pressure is starting to weigh down. Reaching the top 5 is no longer certain.
Currently, Chelsea is only ranked above Liverpool in terms of goal difference. And they must protect that fragile advantage in a series of challenging matches. The Blues must play away against Arsenal and Aston Villa, then successively host Manchester City and Manchester United in mid-April, before traveling to Anfield in early May.
Not to mention, they also face the possibility of facing Paris Saint-Germain or Newcastle United in the Champions League, along with the FA Cup journey against Wrexham. These are factors that reduce training time and increase pressure on the force.
This series of harsh matches has affected Opta's prediction model, when it predicts Chelsea will finish the season in sixth place. That will be a step back from last season under Enzo Maresca, and the loss of revenue from the Champions League will complicate the summer transfer plan.
However, Chelsea still ranks third in the league in terms of expected goals (xG), even creating more chances than any other team in the Premier League. But they are in the group with lower scoring efficiency than expected, scoring about 4 goals less than the xG index.
They also lead in the PPDA index - a measure of pressing intensity - but conceded 12 goals from set pieces, only 4 teams are worse. Notably, Chelsea dropped 17 points from a home lead this season, only behind the 1995-1996 season (20 points) at Stamford Bridge.
This is a season that shows the great potential of this young team, but it is also a season of untimely mistakes, moments of lack of concentration and immaturity that have to pay the price.
Against Arsenal, Chelsea could not repeat mistakes in set pieces, especially when the opponent was the team with the most goals from dead balls in the league. Rosenior required sharpness and continuous attacks, instead of slow control and lack of breakthrough.
The problem is not just tactics. Chelsea has received 8 red cards this season - a sign of lack of composure at a crucial moment. At Emirates, where emotions will rise, they need to keep their heads cool.
In the decisive stage of the season, just a small mistake can lead to serious consequences.
We need players who can be trusted to complete their tasks at important times. Fixed situations are very important in the Premier League.
Our defensive performance in set pieces this season has not reached the necessary level to achieve the goal. I know what we need to do to achieve that. Not because of young players. But because of correctly assessing the players we can trust in difficult times" - Rosenior said after the Burnley draw.
