The results of round 11 of the Premier League surprised many people, when Man City lost 1-2 to Brighton, while Liverpool won 2-0 against Aston Villa. This helped “The Kop” temporarily create a 5-point gap compared to Pep Guardiola’s army.
After this round, the statistics site Opta ran 10,000 simulations of the remaining results of the season. Of these, Liverpool had a 60.46% chance of winning the title, compared to Man City's 34.62%. The draw with Chelsea reduced Arsenal's chances of winning the title to 4.64%.
This season, the defending champions face a series of difficulties without the 2024 Ballon d'Or - Rodri. The Spanish midfielder has a torn anterior cruciate ligament and is likely to miss the rest of the season.
Since joining “The Citizens” in 2019, Rodri has played a total of 260 matches in all competitions. This is the longest injury of this player’s career and affects coach Pep Guardiola’s championship ambitions.
Meanwhile, Liverpool have been in impressive form under new manager Arne Slot, with the 46-year-old winning 15 of his first 17 games in all competitions - a record for a Premier League manager.
"The Kop" is also the only team to win all of the Champions League this season, with 4 wins after 4 matches.
Coach Arne Slot not only changes his approach in each match, but also helps stars like Diaz, Nunez, Salah... shine brightly. From an all-out attacking team, Liverpool now chooses to play slowly, balanced and effectively.
The other opponent, Arsenal, is having a difficult start when facing a storm of injuries. In the last 5 matches, Arteta and his team have only had 1 victory, lost 2 matches and are 9 points behind the top team.
The absence of "conductor" Martin Odegaard has greatly affected the playing style, attacking ability and especially the winning mentality.
According to Opta, Liverpool will win 86 points overall, 3 more than Man City. The third-placed team is Arsenal with 75 points. Although Man United are expected to turn their fortunes around under new coach Ruben Amorim, they are only predicted to earn 54 points and finish 9th, their lowest position in Premier League history.
