Statistics and notable figures
According to data from Opta, Man United are expected to extend their winning streak to 9 consecutive matches at Fulham, with a calculated winning rate of 44.1%. In contrast, Fulham have a 30.4% chance of winning, while the chance of a draw is 25.5%.
The recent history of confrontations is leaning towards Man United when Fulham have only won 1 of their last 19 Premier League matches against the "Red Devils" (3 draws, 15 losses). That only win came at Old Trafford in February 2024. Notably, all three of M.U's most recent away wins against London sides have come at Craven Cottage.
Craven Cottage used to be Fulham's fortress, but last season they ended with a series of 3 consecutive defeats. This is Fulham's worst streak at home since 2020-21, when they lost 6 consecutive matches. Head coach Marco Silva has also never lost 4 consecutive home matches in his career and that is a big concern before hosting Man United.
Manchester United has new confidence after failure
Despite opening the season with a 0-1 defeat to Arsenal, Man United still received encouragement. In fact, the "Red Devils" controlled most of the match, creating dangerous opportunities but were rejected by the excellence of goalkeeper David Raya. If there had been no mistake from Altay Bayındır in Calafiori's opening goal, the result would have been different.
The bright spot lies in the new recruits when Bryan Mbeumo and Matheus Cunha showed their understanding, speed and ability to penetrate right in their debut match. In defense, the young duo Leny Yoro and Patrick Dorgu made a strong impression, while the once-duce names such as Casemiro and Matthijs de Ligt all played solidly, showing that they are still valuable.
Captain Ruben Amorim has suffered 15 defeats in 28 Premier League games, but his performance against Arsenal has given him more confidence. However, that was the test against Fulham as Man United had to win to prove the change.
Fulham's squad and form problems
In contrast to Man United, Fulham entered the new season with many concerns. The 1-1 draw with Brighton in the opening round was acceptable but the equalizer in the 97th minute thanks to Rodrigo Muniz further exposed the deadlock.
The biggest weakness is the transfer. Up to this point, Fulham has only spent 500,000 Euros to bring in reserve goalkeeper Benjamin Lecomte, while the goal is still held by Bernd Leno.
A rare bright spot is 18-year-old midfielder Josh King, who played very steadily against Brighton despite only having a second Premier League start. This could be a young factor for Marco Silva to exploit in the context of the squad not having many additions.
Predicting the starting lineup
Ruben Amorim is likely to make some adjustments after the loss to Arsenal. Goalkeeper Andre Onana could return to start for Altay Bayindir. Up front, Benjamin Sesko is likely to make his first starting match, after coming off the bench in the previous round.
Historical and statistical factors
According to Opta's data, there is an interesting detail, when Fulham's last 4 matches against Man United in the Premier League all had the decisive goal after the 78th minute. Even all 6 goals scored in the last 2 seasons have taken place in the second half. This predicts that the upcoming match may also be tense and will only be decided in the final minutes.
In addition, if Man United win this match, they will win 9 consecutive matches against the same opponent away from home in the Premier League for the first time in history - a remarkable record.
Assessment and prediction
Before the match, Opta still rated Man United higher with a 44.1% chance of winning, while Fulham had a 30.4% chance. However, the Red Devils' disadvantage is that they have won just three of their last 23 Premier League away games against London and all three against Fulham.
Fulham's difficult start at Craven Cottage, combined with the positive performance of the M.U new recruits, has turned the experts towards a victory for the "Red Devils". However, history shows that these encounters are often tense and last until the last minutes.
