Football prediction Atletico Madrid vs Malaga in La Liga

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Football prediction for the Atletico Madrid - Malaga match within the framework of the first round of La Liga season 2026-2027.

Overview

Atletico Madrid enters the 2026-2027 season with the goal of improving their performance after only finishing fourth in La Liga last season, 25 points behind Barcelona.

Diego Simeone's team will find it difficult to compete for the championship as Barcelona and Real Madrid are still highly rated. First of all, they need to overcome their own problems after losing 11 matches in the league last season.

To increase competitiveness, Atletico brought in 4 new players including Alejandro Grimaldo, Lee Kang-in, Morten Hjulmand and Cristian Romero. In the pre-season period, the Spanish capital team played 4 matches, winning against Getafe and Marseille but successively losing to Manchester United and Manchester City.

Head-to-head history is also leaning towards Atletico. They have won 40 out of 71 encounters with Malaga in all competitions and won all 5 recent encounters.

The last time Malaga defeated Atletico was in December 2015 with a score of 1-0, while their most recent victory away from home against this opponent took place in May 2011.

In the opposite direction, Malaga has just won the right to return to La Liga after passing the Segunda Division play-off round in the 2025-2026 season. This is the first time they have returned to the highest league in Spain since the 2017-2018 season.

Coach Juan Francisco Funes has only had 3 new players in the summer including Juan Cruz, Fernando Calero and Jose Salinas. Meanwhile, 6 first-team players have left, including Darko Brasanac, causing Malaga to face significant changes in force.

Malaga's pre-season form is also not really convincing. They only won one victory and entered this match after a 2-2 draw against Fulham.

Atletico is clearly rated higher in both experience and squad quality. However, for Malaga, the return to La Liga is also an opportunity for them to prove that they are ready for the challenge at the highest level.

Personnel situation

Atletico Madrid needs to check Alexander Sorloth's condition after the striker suffered a minor injury last week. Julian Alvarez also left open the possibility of returning to the squad after not participating in the match against Marseille amid speculation about his future.

Two new signings Alejandro Grimaldo and Lee Kang-in are likely to make their debut, while Arnau Ortiz may be given the opportunity to start thanks to his impressive performance in the pre-season period. However, Cristian Romero has not yet been able to play.

On Malaga's side, Aaron Ochoa will be absent due to suspension. Carlos Dotor, Fernando Calero, Diego Murillo and Adrian Nino are also being treated for injuries.

Juanpe will be checked at the last minute due to a hamstring problem. If he does not recover in time, Malaga may be short of up to 6 players in the away match against Atletico.

Jose Salinas is expected to make his debut as a left-back, while Chupe will lead the attack. This striker has scored 25 goals in all competitions in the 2025-2026 season.

Expected lineup:

Atletico Madrid: Oblak, Pubill, Le Normand, Hancko, Simeone, Barrios, Koke, Grimaldo, Kang-in, Lookman, Ortiz.

Herrero, Puga, Recio, Galilea, Salinas, Larrubia, Rodriguez, Merino, Lorenzo, Munoz, Chupe.

The match between Atletico Madrid and Malaga takes place at 2:00 AM on August 20 (Vietnam time).

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