Overview
Two goals from Luis Diaz and Harry Kane, scored before and after the break, helped Bayern Munich win narrowly against Real Madrid in the first leg, thereby ending a 9-match winless streak against the Spanish representative (7 losses, 2 draws). However, Kylian Mbappe's late goal still helped Alvaro Arbeloa's team nurture hope before the second leg.
Bayern has a basis for optimism when they have won 29/30 matches in two legs at UEFA after winning away from home in the first leg, including 12/13 wins with a one-goal difference. The only exception is the 2010-2011 season, when Inter Milan successfully reversed the score.
After the victory in Madrid, Vincent Kompany's team continued to show impressive form with a 5-0 victory over St Pauli in the Bundesliga. Bayern has now widened the gap to 12 points in the standings and is facing the opportunity to win the championship early.
However, their biggest goal is still the Champions League, where Bayern aims to reach the semi-finals for the first time since the 2019-2020 season championship. However, the challenge named Real Madrid has never been easy, as the German team has lost 7/8 of the most recent matches at UEFA against Spanish representatives.
However, Allianz Arena is still a solid support. Bayern has won all 5 home matches in European cups this season, averaging 3.2 goals/match and only lost 1 in their last 28 home matches in the Champions League (22 wins, 5 draws). In all competitions, they have also only lost 2/44 of their last home matches.
In the opposite direction, Real Madrid is facing the risk of experiencing their second consecutive white-handed season. The first-leg defeat against Bayern came amidst a series of disappointing results in La Liga, including the defeat to Mallorca and the draw with Girona.
After a 1-2 defeat to Mallorca, Real continued to disappoint when they were held to a 1-1 draw by Girona at home, causing fierce reactions from fans at the Bernabeu. This result helps Barcelona widen the gap to 9 points when the season is only 7 rounds away.
Real Madrid has only won 1/7 recent matches at UEFA after losing the first leg at home. However, they have an impressive record against German teams, with 7 consecutive wins in the Champions League quarter-finals.
In addition, Los Blancos have won all 9 recent matches against German representatives at UEFA, and have only lost 2/12 of their most recent away matches in Europe against German teams (7 wins, 3 draws).
Against Bayern Munich, Real is unbeaten in the last 4 visits to Allianz Arena (3 wins, 1 draw), and also unbeaten in the last 4 Champions League encounters, including a 4-3 aggregate victory in the 2023-2024 season semi-finals.
Personnel situation
Bayern Munich will not have the services of young midfielder Lennart Karl (brother injury) and goalkeeper Sven Ulreich (muscle injury). Meanwhile, Harry Kane is expected to be fit enough to play, although he still feels there are problems.
Serge Gnabry is likely to recover from a minor knee injury in time to start with Luis Diaz and Michael Olise in attack. In midfield, Aleksandar Pavlovic is competing for a starting spot with Leon Goretzka, while Jamal Musiala may not start from the beginning.
On the other side, Real Madrid continues to be missing Thibaut Courtois ( thigh) and Rodrygo (front cruciate ligament). Aurelien Tchouameni is also absent due to suspension after receiving enough yellow cards.
Mbappe is leading the Champions League scoring list this season with 14 goals after 10 matches, only 3 goals behind the record. However, the French striker is having physical problems after a facial injury and his ability to play is still uncertain.
Expected lineup:
Bayern Munich: Neuer, Laimer, Upamecano, Tah, Stanisic, Kimmich, Pavlovic, Olise, Gnabry, Diaz, Kane.
Real Madrid: Lunin, Alexander-Arnold, Rudiger, Huijsen, Carreras, Valverde, Camavinga, Bellingham, Guler, Mbappe, Vinicius Jr.
The match between Bayern Munich and Real Madrid takes place at 2:00 AM on April 16 (Vietnam time).
