Overview
Coach Graham Potter knows better than anyone the value of home advantage when West Ham welcomes Chelsea at London Stadium in round 2 of the Premier League 2025-2026.
The Englishman had a short spell at Stamford Bridge for less than seven months before being sacked in April 2023. He has struggled to find a place in London since being appointed by the Hammers in January.
West Ham started the season with a 0-3 defeat to Sunderland last weekend. If they want to return, they are forced to improve their lackluster face at home under Potter.
West Ham have won just two of their nine Premier League home games under Potter (D3 L4) with just nine points. In history, no coach of The Hammers has won less than 10 points after the first 10 home matches in the tournament. Even Alan Curbishley and Avram Grant have at least 10 points.
The London side also had a poor start to the season, having lost their opening eight games in 2022-23. In the Premier League, only Southampton have had more first two losing streaks than West Ham (9 times).
West Ham's biggest hope is Jarrod Bowen. The English striker has scored three goals in his last four London derbies, and could become the fifth player in the club's history to score in three consecutive derbies, after Michail Antonio (2019).
In goal, rookie Mads Hermansen caused concern when he only kept 1 clean sheet after 28 appearances in the Premier League (3.6%), the second lowest rate in the history of the tournament.
Chelsea also did not start smoothly when they were held to a 0-0 draw by Crystal Palace at Stamford Bridge. The Blues have not "failed to score" in the opening 2 rounds since the 1995-1966 season.
The only bright spot is the defense as this team has just gone through 3 consecutive clean sheets in the Premier League - the first achievement since February 2023.
Under coach Enzo Maresca, Chelsea controlled the ball impressively, leading the number of successful passes in the first half (510, equal to Man City). However, the biggest problem for them is converting opportunities into goals.
Young talent Estevao could be the key, as he made a strong impression on his debut with 6 successful dribbles - the most Chelsea have made since Raheem Sterling against Everton in 2022.
West Ham continue to be without Crysencio Summerville due to a hamstring injury, while George Earthy's ability to play is still uncertain.
On Chelsea's side, Tosin Adarabioyo could return from injury but Levi Colwill is definitely absent due to knee problems. The duo Benoit Badiashile and Romeo Lavia were also unable to attend.
Head-to-head record
Chelsea have won five of their last seven Premier League meetings with West Ham (D1 L1). In the London derbies alone, the Blues have won 32 against West Ham - a record only behind Tottenham (37).
However, at home, West Ham often make things difficult for Chelsea when they have won 4, drawn 2 and lost only 2 in the last 8 encounters.
However, in their home game last season, the Hammers suffered a 0-3 defeat. The last time they lost to Chelsea in 2 consecutive home matches was from 2013 2014 to 2014-2015.
Predicting the result
According to the Opta supercomputer, West Ham have only a 22.0% chance of winning against Chelsea. In contrast, The Blues are rated much higher with a 54.6% chance of winning all 3 points, while the draw scenario accounts for 23.4%.
Although the new season is only in the warm-up stage, the prediction model shows Chelsea have an 11.6% chance of finishing in the top 4.
Meanwhile, West Ham's prospects are less bright as the possibility of falling to the position of second to last9) accounts for 11.2%. This shows a relatively gloomy picture of the prospects of Potter and his team.
Score prediction: West Ham 1-3 Chelsea
Expected lineup:
West Ham: Mads Hermansen, Jean-Clair Todibo, Max Kilman, Nayef Aguerd, James Ward-Prowse, Guido Rodriguez, El Hadji Malick Diouf, Lucas Paqueta, Jarrod Bowen, Niclas Fullkrug.
Chelsea: Robert Sanchez, Reece James, Josh Acheampong, Trevoh Chalobah, Marc Cucurella, Enzo Fernandez, Moisas Caicedo, Pedro Neto, Cole Palmer, Jamie Gittens, Joao Pedro.
The match between West Ham and Chelsea takes place at 2:00 am on August 23 (Vietnam time).
