World Cup 2026 will be the biggest World Cup in history when it gathers 48 teams, taking place in the US, Mexico and Canada. With 104 matches and the first time applying the round of 32, the tournament promises to bring the fiercest competition ever.
Before the biggest football festival on the planet, the Opta supercomputer simulated the 2026 World Cup 10,000 times to make predictions about the championship contenders.
According to the simulated results, Spain is the number one candidate with a 16.1% chance of winning the championship. Luis de la Fuente's team is also the only team with a chance of reaching the quarter-finals exceeding 50% (52.1%). La Roja is assessed to have a great chance of toping Group H, where they are with Uruguay, Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde.
Spain's strength comes from a generation of promising young talents, notably Lamine Yamal, alongside key players such as Rodri, Ferran Torres, Mikel Oyarzabal and Mikel Merino. After the EURO 2024 championship, Spain continues to maintain stable form and is considered the most formidable team in the tournament.
Right after Spain is France with a championship rate of 13%. Despite falling into a difficult group including Norway, Senegal and Iraq, Didier Deschamps' team is still highly rated thanks to a quality squad, especially Kylian Mbappe. This will also be Deschamps' last World Cup as head coach of the French national team.
In third place is England with a championship rate of 11.2%. Under Thomas Tuchel, the "Three Lions" showed remarkable stability in the qualifiers, winning all 8 matches and not conceding a goal. Harry Kane, Jude Bellingham and Declan Rice are expected to help England end their 60-year title drought.
Defending champion Argentina is fourth with a rate of 10.4%. Lionel Messi continues to be Albiceleste's biggest hope alongside Lautaro Martinez and Julian Alvarez. However, history shows that successfully defending the World Cup title is an extremely difficult task.
The next group of candidates includes Portugal (7%), Brazil (6.6%) and Germany (5.1%). Cristiano Ronaldo is still Portugal's leader, while Brazil places its trust in Carlo Ancelotti and a generation of stars like Vinicius Junior and Raphinha. Germany is expected to regain its position with Florian Wirtz, Joshua Kimmich and Manuel Neuer.
According to Opta, only 35.9% of simulations witness a country winning the World Cup for the first time. This shows that traditional teams are still the brightest candidates for the gold cup in North America this summer.
