Tottenham, besieged by injuries, is falling into an alarming downward spiral.
Not for the first time this season, last weekend Spurs dropped points against a newly promoted team despite taking the lead after the first half. That disappointing result extended the winning streak, dragging them down the Premier League table.
Coach Thomas Frank's excuses are increasingly tiring fans. After too many terrible results, patience is almost exhausted and the phrase "dismissal" has begun to appear in a part of the fans. A relegation battle, in theory, is no longer a dream.
In fact, this is the picture of exactly a year ago, at the beginning of 2025. And what is worrying is that Tottenham seems to be going back to the old ways.
The difference this season lies in the fact that newly promoted teams are no longer hopeless. One team is above Spurs, another team is only 2 points behind them. The bottom group is also narrowing the gap in a worrying direction.
West Ham is in 18th place, after defeating Spurs away from home last week for 2 consecutive wins, narrowing Tottenham's gap with the relegation zone to 8 points. And West Ham is not the only team below Spurs showing signs of catching up - in contrast to Frank's team, which is struggling to find victory.
Of course, not many people really believe Tottenham will be relegated. They are still strong enough to finish fourth in the Champions League group stage, and just a positive result against Eintracht Frankfurt can finish in the top 8, winning a straight ticket to the round of 16.
But in the domestic league, Spurs played too poorly. And unlike last season, they cannot expect to always have 3 teams that are definitely weaker than them.
The 40-point mark is often seen as a lifeline for the relegation race. Tottenham currently lacks 12 points to reach that mark and has 15 matches left to compensate.
The problem lies in form. In the last 15 Premier League matches, Spurs have only earned 14 points. And in the early stages of that streak, at least they still have a little faith to cling to. After the 2-2 draw at Turf Moor last weekend, continuing the defeats against Bournemouth (the team that did not win 11 matches before) and West Ham (the team that did not win 10 matches before), Tottenham's confidence must have bottomed out.
In addition, as West Ham gradually gets into shape, and Leeds and Nottingham Forest have also accumulated points recently, the relegation point threshold this season may even be higher. If Spurs only recreate the form of the last 15 matches in the remainder of the season, they will end with 42 points. But as their form is getting worse, there is no guarantee that Tottenham will still achieve that total point.
Even so, supercomputer Opta still assesses Tottenham's relegation risk very low, 1.64%. There are 6 other teams predicted to have a higher relegation potential than "The Spurs".
However, if placed next to the top 5 target - a position they are only 9 points behind - the picture is much less optimistic. Tottenham only has 0.62% chance of fulfilling their initial ambition to win a ticket to the Champions League next season (a high possibility will happen if they finish fifth in the Premier League).
And things could get worse in the next few weeks. Tottenham will enter a very heavy February with a tight schedule. They will face Man City, a reviving Man United, Newcastle and Arsenal in just 21 days.
For many teams, playing 3 of those 4 matches at home may be a fulcrum. But Tottenham is having the second worst home record in the Premier League this season, only winning 1/10 of their last matches at home. They have dropped points against a series of weak opponents during that time, so it is difficult to believe that Spurs will create a surprise against the "big guys".
