Singapore has home advantage, but facing Thailand in the semi-finals of ASEAN Cup 2026 is a difficult challenge as the defending runner-up is maintaining a stable record.
According to predictions from the B.S website, Thailand has a 76.2% chance of winning, while the probability of Singapore winning 3 points is only 9.1%.
The possibility of the two teams sharing points after 90 minutes is at 14.7%. The difference is also reflected in the expected goal index (xG), when Thailand is predicted to be 2.61 and Singapore is only at 0.8.
Notably, according to the simulation of this website, 2-0 is the highest probability score if Thailand wins, with a probability of 11.3%.
The next scenarios include Thailand winning 3-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9%) and 1-0 (8.6%). If Singapore creates a surprise, 2-1 is the score rated highest by the algorithm, but only reaches 2.7%. In the draw group, the highest probability falls into the score is 1-1 with 6.9%.
The above figures are consistent with the performance of the two teams in the group stage of the ASEAN Cup 2026. The Singapore team won 2 matches and drew 2 matches to rank second in Group A. Meanwhile, the Thai team won all 4 matches, scored 10 goals and did not concede.
History is also supporting Thailand. After 70 encounters, they have won 41 matches, drawn 18 and lost 11. Currently, the "War Elephants" are on a 10-match winning streak against Singapore.
In the last two encounters, the archipelago team both won 3-2 in a friendly match in 2025 and 4-2 at the ASEAN Cup 2024.
The first leg semi-final between Singapore vs Thailand takes place at 8:00 PM on August 15th at Jalan Besar.
