According to The Business Times, Southeast Asian countries are concerned that the falling birth rate will impact their socio-economy.
Experts point to a number of factors that have led to the declining fertility rate – the average number of births per woman. In countries like the Philippines, the number of new births appears to be closely linked to the marriage rate.
In Singapore, the financial pressure of raising children is a major deterrent, pushing the city-state's fertility rate to the region's lowest of 0.97 by 2023.
As living conditions improve and child mortality rates fall, families will feel less pressure or need to have more children, according to Aiko Kikkawa, senior economist at the Asian Development Bank.
Researcher Melina Martinus from the ASEAN Studies Center assessed that the increasing number of women participating in the workforce is also a factor leading to low birth rates in some countries.
“Economic development requires women to contribute more to the workforce,” the expert said.
However, despite the growing female workforce, economies in Southeast Asia, with the exception of Singapore and Brunei, have yet to achieve the expected income levels.
Falling fertility rates threaten to squeeze a country’s growth potential. For example, Malaysia’s low fertility rate of 1.6 births per woman, combined with the country’s aging population, is putting pressure on the economy.
Thailand will also face a population crisis, with its population halved if the birth rate continues to fall.
Education, cost of living, changing attitudes and maternity leave also affect Thailand’s birth rate. In this country, pregnant women are entitled to 98 days or 14 weeks of maternity leave, which is one of the lowest in Southeast Asia.
An analysis by researchers from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington (USA) shows that by 2050, up to three-quarters of countries in the world will not achieve a birth rate sufficient to maintain population size. This situation is predicted to occur in 97% of countries globally by 2100.
However, experts say that a more important indicator is the composition of the population. Faced with the demographic dilemma, countries have introduced many policies to encourage families to have children, changing old policies that have slowed down population growth.
In Vietnam, the birth rate tends to decrease. According to statistics from the General Statistics Office, in 1999, on average, each Vietnamese woman of childbearing age had 2.33 children. From 2009 to now, the birth rate has increased slightly, or decreased slightly around (2.1 children) and by 2023, each Vietnamese woman will have 1.9 children, the lowest ever.
Meanwhile, to ensure replacement fertility and population size, Vietnam needs to firmly maintain the replacement fertility rate of 2.1 children/woman.
In the forecast of Vietnam's population until 2069, in the low fertility scenario, Vietnam will face the risk of an average population growth rate of -0.04% in 2059. If in the medium fertility scenario, 10 years later (2069), this number will reach 0.
Low fertility rates have a direct and profound impact on population structure, reducing the working-age population and accelerating the aging process. As a result, family structure, cultural and social life, economy, labor, employment and social security are all affected.
