No more rain of 10s for 2026 high school graduation, predicted sharp drop in benchmark scores

GS.TSKH Nguyễn Đình Đức, Đại học Quốc gia Hà Nội |

Through analyzing the score distribution of all exam subjects, it can be seen that the excellent score rate this year has decreased significantly. It is predicted that the benchmark score in 2026 will also decrease.

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Prof. Dr. Nguyen Dinh Duc, Vietnam National University, Hanoi. Photo: Ministry of Education and Training

Excellent scores drop sharply

In Literature, the excellent score rate (from 7 or higher), last year was 65.4%, in previous years it was also 64 - 62% (to put it simply, out of 10 people, 6.5 people are good at Literature). But this year, the excellent Literature rate is only 35%. I think the differentiation of the Literature exam has had a very clear change.

Phổ điểm thi môn Ngữ văn kỳ thi tốt nghiệp THPT năm 2026.
Distribution of Literature exam scores for the 2026 high school graduation exam.

In Mathematics, the score ratio of 8 last year was lower, the excellent score ratio was less than 5%. But this year that ratio reached about 11%. In previous years it was in the range of around 10%.

Similarly, the excellent scores of Physics, Chemistry, Biology, especially Biology, also maintained a stable rate, about around 10% for many consecutive years. These are signals showing that there is a very good differentiation.

In Geography, last year and many years ago there were "rains of 10s" and many excellent scores, but this year the excellent score rate is only over 2%.

Besides the percentage of excellent scores from 8 and above, we also see the percentage of scores below average. Literature has the lowest percentage of scores below average, 15%. Mathematics, Physics, the percentage below average is 42%. Informatics, the percentage below average is 24%. Chemistry, the percentage below average is more than 27%. Geography, the percentage below average is 50%. History, the percentage below average is over 30%.

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Scores of 10 in the 2026 high school graduation exam subjects.

We are hoping for a high school graduation exam that can serve university admissions in a fair, objective and accurate manner, so that students do not have to do too many different exams, so that universities can be assured of enrollment. I think that this year there is a very good improvement in the differentiation of exam quality, shown by the fact that there is no longer a "rain of excellent scores" and a high average score rate.

Along with the positive reason of differentiating exam questions, another reason is that we have boldly aimed for real learning, real talent and through that, accurately assessed the strengths and abilities of candidates.

With such results, I personally - as a university professor and having worked in university admissions - believe that I can completely rest assured to use the high school graduation exam results for university admissions.

Forecast of sharp drop in benchmark scores for top schools

Analyzing the exam scores of subjects as well as the combinations of blocks, I predict that this year the top schools and "hot" majors will have scores reduced by about 1 to 3 points.

Especially this year, the C00 block will decrease a lot. As for other combinations, the fluctuation range is about 1 point and will be stable at the level of 15 to 20 points.

Looking at this year's score distribution, it can be seen that the proportion of STEM subjects with below-average scores is still quite high. This requires continuing to increase the duration and strengthen STEM education innovation.

Another point that cannot be ignored is English.

English has been an elective subject from last year to this year. The percentage of scores below average in English last year was 45%, this year is 50%.

In previous years, the English subject also always had a high below-average rate: 42%, 44%. This shows that although there has been a lot of positiveness in teaching English and is moving towards teaching English as the second language in schools, but overall nationally, English still needs to be invested in and innovated in methods more strongly so that students have a baggage to integrate internationally.

Phổ điểm môn tiếng Anh kỳ thi tốt nghiệp THPT năm 2026.
Score distribution of English subject in the 2026 high school graduation exam.

Among the subjects, Literature is still the subject with the highest percentage of excellent scores and the lowest percentage of scores below average. We need to pay more attention to setting questions and evaluating so that Literature not only re-examines the knowledge students have learned at the high school level, but Literature is "human".

We have training in thinking ability, physical strength, and intellect, but we must also train the soul, feelings, and way of learning literature and reading culture for today's young generation. Only then can we train people who are "both rosy and specialized". Regarding the innovation of Literature exam questions, I think there should be stronger improvements.

There will be a question raised: with a very high graduation rate, what is the point of taking the high school graduation exam? I think the high school graduation exam is very important.

First, only when there are exams do students study. Through that review and exam, students have the opportunity to evaluate and review knowledge to prepare luggage to end their high school years and enter life.

Second, the exam is a very important basis for university admission, reducing costs for candidates, parents, schools and better meeting the goal of "2 in 1".

Third, from the score distribution and high school graduation exam results, the Ministry of Education and Training has comparisons between subjects, localities, regions, and even comparisons between high school graduation exam scores and transcripts.

These are very important indicators for state management agencies to manage quality. Through these indicators, localities, schools, teachers and both students and parents review teaching and learning activities, and subject orientation. That is like a warning to invest in and innovate teaching and learning methods, and innovate testing and assessment. I think the indicators and meaning of this exam are extremely great.

With such analysis angles, I assess that this year, the work of setting exam questions, invigilating, grading, and by the time the exam results are announced, the high school graduation exam has been successful.

GS.TSKH Nguyễn Đình Đức, Đại học Quốc gia Hà Nội
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