The Vietnamese stock market has just ended a brilliant week, the VN-Index increased by more than 70 points (+5.1%), recording the strongest increase week since the end of November 2022.
This is the fourth consecutive week of increase in the index. This increase has caused the VN-Index to climb to a peak for more than 3 years, since April 2022 and is only about 70 points behind the historical peak.
Trading is also very vibrant with consecutive trading sessions matching billion-dollar orders. Liquidity increased sharply from both domestic and foreign investors.
One of the main factors driving the recovery of the general market comes from concerns about temporary leniency tax and positive recovery of corporate profit growth in the second quarter of 2025. According to SSI Research's estimate, more than 40 enterprises in the research scope recorded a profit in the second quarter of 2025 increase of 12.2% over the same period and 19.9% over the previous quarter.
In addition, it is also necessary to mention the strong return of foreign capital, similar to the period at the end of November 2022. Foreign investors net bought all 5 sessions last week with a total net buying value of nearly VND 7,000 billion, the highest since the beginning of 2025. Foreign capital flows are mainly concentrated in large-cap stocks in the banking, securities, and steel groups.
In terms of industry, real estate, banks and especially Vingroup stocks are the main contributors leading the general market. According to SSI Research, if Vingroup stocks are excluded, the VN-Index will almost move sideways compared to the beginning of the year, but still recover 17% compared to the bottom in early April.
SSI Research believes that the stock market may witness strong fluctuations in the July - early August period due to profit-taking pressure in the business results season at the end of July.
Second, the room for further monetary policy easing may also be limited in the context of the exchange rate increasing by more than 3% in the first 6 months of the year.
Third, the impact of tariffs may also begin to be more clearly demonstrated through export figures and business results in the third quarter of some related industry groups such as textiles, seafood, and industrial parks.
Furthermore, SSI still maintains a positive view of the market in the long term with the goal of reaching 1,500 points by the end of 2025 with a stable macroeconomic foundation. The Government continues to maintain high economic growth targets, along with domestic drivers including infrastructure, recovering real estate markets, as well as promoting the private economy can help Vietnam create a solid foundation for sustainable economic growth.
With a relatively sustainable profit growth prospect, the total net profit of more than 79 stocks in SSI Research's research scope is estimated to increase by 14% in 2025 and may continue to maintain a growth momentum of 15% in 2026. The increase in exchange rates also helps Vietnamese goods remain relatively attractive compared to other countries.
Currently, the projected P/E of the VN-Index is 11.9 times, still 12.8 times lower than the 5-year average. Compared to other markets in the region, Vietnam has attractive valuations, strong ROE and favorable profit prospects.
The yield of 8.4% on the stock market is quite attractive compared to the average mobilization interest rate of around 4.6% and the potential to attract a part of residential deposits has tended to increase rapidly in recent quarters even though the mobilization interest rate level is still low.
Regarding the upgrade story, SSI believes that there is a 90% chance that Vietnam will be announced by FTSE Russell as an emerging market this year, thereby attracting about 1 billion USD from ETFs, not including active funds.
