Looking back at the developments of the stock market in the past 3 months, the VN-Index has conquered the milestones of 1,100, 1,200, 1,300 and 1,400 points, thereby climbing to the highest level in more than 3 years. However, the index is still 100 points behind the historical peak reached in early April 2022.
HoSE's capitalization also set a new record. As of July 8, the total HoSE market capitalization was up to VND6.087 trillion, surpassing the old record of VND6.036 trillion reached on April 4, 2022. Since the beginning of the year, HoSE's market capitalization has increased by nearly VND880,000 billion.
Up to now, the VN-Index has conquered the 1,400-point mark 3 times. The market showed the strongest breakthrough momentum at the end of October 2021, when the VN-Index conquered the 1,400 mark and then reached 1,500 points. However, the current context is very different from when it was three years ago.
According to experts, if in 2021, the biggest factor driving the market came from the excitement of F0 cash flow, then at present, there are many reasons to support this "exceeding peak" event.
Firstly, the domestic macro situation has become more stable as GDP in the second quarter of 2025 and GDP in the first 6 months of the year have grown very positively. This is reflecting the effectiveness of the State's policies since the beginning of the year, with moves such as flexible monetary policy management through interest rate reduction, credit promotion; at the same time, implementing policies to promote public investment, attract FDI inflows and develop the private economic sector, support domestic enterprises...
The second important factor that helps the market have a good momentum as it is the mentality of investors being untied from the impact of tariffs and foreign cash flow returning strongly.
Mr. Tran Hoang Son - Market Strategy Director of VPBankS said that the attraction of the stock market is increasing, reflected in liquidity and newly opened accounts. In addition, the after-tax profit growth rate enters a period of stable growth.
Regarding valuation, the P/E of the VN-Index is currently 13.9 - 14 times still low, showing that there is still much room for increase. By 2026, the market has another opportunity through IPO deals with an estimated scale of 47.5 billion USD, helping to attract foreign capital.
The story of upgrading the market is also clearer with a probability of 70% in September 2025, according to Mr. Son, in the previous, during and after the upgrading period, it will attract a huge amount of foreign capital, estimated at 3 - 7 billion USD if disbursed in a short time, which will create a big boost.
In the positive scenario, market liquidity could reach over VND23 trillion in 2025 and nearly VND28 trillion in 2026, if Vietnam is officially upgraded according to FTSE and a few successful IPO deals, some new features from the KRX system are deployed.
Mr. Tran Hoang Son commented that with such good liquidity and many positive stories, the VN-Index could reach 1,500 - 1,550 points at the end of this year or the beginning of next year.
On the cautious side, experts also recommend that investors still need to pay attention to uncertain external factors. The result of the tariff agreement with the US will have a significant impact on Vietnam's economic growth prospects.
margin lending activities are bustling and can be a "double-edged sword". When a widespread call margin occurs during strong corrections. There was a time when many midcap and penny stocks were white on the buyers' side with very low liquidity. bottom-fishing cash flow is mainly concentrated in the large-cap group. Therefore, investors should prioritize maintaining long-term investment positions but limit the use of too high leverage during this period.
