Sir, how will the increase in deposit interest rates affect lending interest rates and businesses' access to capital in the coming months?
- As of the end of the third quarter of 2025, credit growth has reached a very high level of 13.4%, this is the highest growth rate compared to the same period in many recent years, showing that the capital demand of the economy is very strong. Meanwhile, capital mobilization growth only reached about 9.7%, creating a significant difference compared to the strong increase in credit.
This difference has pushed the lending rate on the whole system's mobilized loan (LDR) to a high level (estimated at about 98%), causing great pressure on available capital sources of banks.
To meet the demand for large credit disbursement in the fourth quarter - the traditional peak period to complete the whole year's business goals - banks are forced to increase interest rates to compete to attract deposit sources from residents and economic organizations, in order to promptly supplement new lending capital, ensure liquidity and comply with safety indicators according to the regulations of the State Bank. When deposit interest rates increase, pressure on lending interest rates is almost inevitable, even if certain delays may appear. Although the Government has strongly directed interest rate cuts, maintaining low lending interest rates will force banks to accept the risk of NIM narrowing too much or applying tighter lending conditions for new loans, especially medium and long-term loans.
In the coming months, banks will find it difficult to maintain low lending levels as in early 2025, especially when capital costs increase and credit demand recovers slightly. Therefore, the average lending interest rate in the fourth quarter may increase slightly compared to the third quarter of 2025.
For businesses, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, access to capital will be more difficult, due to tightened credit conditions and higher risk assessment standards. Enterprises that need long-term capital will be most affected, because banks have to mobilize long-term capital at higher costs, along with concerns about liquidity risks and long-term credit risks. However, priority sectors according to the Government's orientation (export, supporting industries, green energy, etc.) can still enjoy preferential interest rates to ensure growth goals and economic restructuring.
What do you predict about the interest rate trend (both mobilization and lending) from now until the end of the first quarter of 2026? Is this increase temporary or the beginning of a new cycle?
- In my opinion, from now until the end of the first quarter of 2026, it is likely that the interest rate level will maintain a slight upward trend, mainly due to inflationary pressure and improved credit demand. Deposit interest rates may remain stable or tend to increase slightly in the short term, due to liquidity competition pressure between banks and capital demand for production and business at the end of the year.
The increase will not be too sudden but will be regulated by the SBV through open market tools, expected to be in the range of 0.5 - 1.0% for longer terms. Lending interest rates, accordingly, will also likely increase accordingly but at a control level, thanks to the flexible management direction of the SBV.
However, this increase is in my opinion only temporary, more technical than the beginning of a new tightening cycle, to ensure that it does not reverse the trend of monetary policy easing. Currently, the SBV is still prioritizing the goal of supporting economic growth through lowering capital costs, high interest rates will go against this goal.
As inflation and exchange rates cool down, along with global monetary policy gradually stabilizing, interest rates may return to a more balanced level from around mid-2026, creating favorable conditions for credit and investment growth recovery.
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