The Ministry of Finance proposes to extend the policy of exemption and reduction of some types of taxes on gasoline and oil for another 3 months, until September 30, 2026.
In policy appraisal documents, the Ministry of Finance has issued a forecast of gasoline and oil prices in the coming time.
Accordingly, the Ministry of Finance believes that the energy market has just witnessed a sharp drop after the US and Iran reached a temporary agreement, paving the way for the Hormuz Strait to completely unlock maritime traffic, eliminating the "war risk premium" which was one of the reasons pushing oil prices up earlier.
The Ministry of Finance believes that gasoline and oil prices in the third and fourth quarters are forecast to continue the downward trend and remain at a low level thanks to a major geopolitical turning point that helps unlock global supply.
Major financial institutions simultaneously lowered crude oil price forecasts, leading to expectations that retail gasoline and oil prices in Vietnam will continue to decrease significantly.
Major banks around the world have quickly cut their Brent oil price forecasts for the second half of the year. Goldman Sachs lowered its Brent oil price forecast for Q4 to $80/barrel (down $10 compared to previous forecasts); Morgan Stanley sharply cut its Q3 forecast from $100 to $90/barrel and Q4 to $80/barrel; Citigroup gave a lower forecast, with Brent oil price in Q3 at $75/barrel and Q4 average at only $70/barrel.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) also issued a warning about the risk of large oversupply returning due to production capacity increasing faster than global consumption rates.
Because domestic retail prices are calculated based on the reference price of finished products in the Singapore market, the downward trend of world oil prices will directly and positively impact Vietnamese consumers.
However, although the general trend is downward, the market still contains risks if conflicts recur. According to the Ministry of Finance, after each ceasefire, oil prices may fall deeply but also have the potential to rebound if the parties violate the agreement.
