Scenario for operating gasoline prices from now until the end of the year
During the domestic gasoline price adjustment period on August 22, many businesses predicted that gasoline prices would decline. According to forecasts of some major petroleum enterprises, domestic gasoline prices may decrease early this week, the expected decrease is about 480-550 VND/liter, while diesel may decrease by a similar level of about 400-550 VND/liter. 500 VND/liter. In case the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Finance allocates a Stabilization Fund , gasoline prices may decrease less.
Thus, from the beginning of the year until now, gasoline prices have increased 16 times and decreased 14 times. Oil increased 14 times and decreased 16 times. Since the beginning of the year, each liter of RON 95 gasoline has increased by 690 VND, while diesel oil has increased by 510 VND.
Mr. Nguyen Xuan Thang - Director of Hai Au Phat Petroleum Company Limited - said that it is difficult to predict how petroleum prices will increase at the end of the year, this depends on the State's management. Vietnam's gasoline prices depend greatly on geopolitical fluctuations and world gasoline prices, so gasoline prices are constantly changing. From a business perspective in the petroleum sector, Mr. Thang said that the price situation tends to increase towards the end of the year.
Talking to Lao Dong, Mr. Duong Duc Quang - Deputy General Director of Vietnam Commodity Exchange - MXV - said that in the current period, supply and demand factors will support prices in the short term, world oil prices have may continue to move around 80 USD/barrel. However, pressure may return to dominate the market after the peak consumption season passes and OPEC+ gradually pumps more supply into the market.
With the developments in the political situation in the Middle East, a representative of MXV said that with a series of leading crude oil producers and exporters, the scenario of conflict escalation will be the factor pushing oil prices to the 85-point mark. 90 USD/barrel, or even reaching the 3-digit mark.
World gasoline prices account for 64-72% of the price structure, leading to domestic prices completely depending on international prices, so, according to Mr. Quang, there are still many factors affecting domestic gasoline prices. in the last months of the year surrounding geopolitical factors and the FED's interest rate management moves...
The Ministry of Industry and Trade also said that there has been a directive to improve efficiency in petroleum management and ensure petroleum supply. Including requiring 36 key traders to ensure supply in the last 6 months of the year, strictly reporting on production, import, and purchasing plans of petroleum refineries and circulation reserves; Absolutely do not interrupt the supply in the system (from wholesalers, distributors, to retail businesses).
In particular, the authorities will closely monitor the implementation of the minimum total resources of key traders, especially those with low performance in recent times. This is to avoid the situation where imports and purchases of domestically produced petroleum by traders are uneven like in the first half of the year, affecting the implementation of the country's total resources.
Many adjustments to the price mechanism
Responding to questions at the National Assembly Standing Committee on thematic supervision and questions from the beginning of the 15th National Assembly term on August 21, Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong Dien said, about gasoline consumption and reserves. Currently, the Government has approved a project to double the level of petroleum reserves, from a 7-day reserve to half a month.
In addition to finished petroleum reserves, crude oil reserves for refineries have also been increased, ensuring 15-20 days of oil import.
Talking about the management of the petroleum market recently, Minister Nguyen Hong Dien affirmed that it was "very good". This is because the management agency has adjusted the price mechanism and operating time for gasoline prices from 10 days to 7 days. Since then, the fluctuation range between domestic and world gasoline prices is no longer as large as before.
In addition, the executive agency has also adjusted the actual costs incurred for businesses in the petroleum business, from 6 months to 3 months. Even when there are major fluctuations, the Ministry of Industry and Trade and the Ministry of Finance propose that the Government allow adjustments to update actual costs incurred for businesses, ensuring that businesses do not lose money.
