The stock market is still holding the medium-term price increase trend with the support zone in the range of 1,280 - 1,300 points. However, liquidity last week began to stagnate.
This past trading week was the first week after the Lunar New Year holiday in which the trading liquidity of all sessions during the week was below the 20-session liquidity average. This may stem from investors' concerns as the market has had a long increase, many stocks have passed safe buying points.
For personal cash flow, purchasing power is maintained and there is still abundant room for margin lending (margin) at large securities companies. The margin service fee is not officially likely to reappear, but the estimated scale is low.
Therefore, the pressure to take short-term profits will not be too great, because most of the cash flow participating in the market in the past time was self-made capital, not relying much on leverage. With potential demand waiting for corrections to participate, there is still room for the VN-Index to expand its upward momentum.
The impact of foreign investors on the market is also very noteworthy. Continuous net selling sessions reaching the threshold of VND 1,000 billion of this block have somewhat caused hesitation for domestic investors.
However, domestic cash flow still plays a leading role, showing that the internal strength of the market is not too dependent on foreign capital. Although foreign investors have maintained a net selling trend, with a total value of more than VND21,000 billion from the beginning of 2025 to present, the proportion of cash flow from this group in the market is decreasing.
On the contrary, domestic cash flow, especially from individual investors, is increasingly dominating. This shows that the market trend in the coming time will still be led mainly by domestic capital flows.
A suitable market correction, if not exceeding 3-5% from the peak, will be an opportunity for investors to accumulate more potential stocks, especially when market sentiment is still supported by the positive macro context such as stable GDP growth and economic support policies from the Government.
In early April, the market will welcome a series of important events related to the US tax results to markets scheduled to be announced on April 2. In addition, FTSE Russell's market upgrade results 1 week later as well as the congress of shareholders of enterprises with new development plans. These are all events that have a big and multi-dimensional impact on the market.
Therefore, the current period will be the time when the stock market will adjust slightly but still be healthy, stocks will have certain differentiation and accumulation instead of continuing to explode like at the beginning of the year. Investors still need to be cautious about the risk of spreading the risk of the chain effect. If foreign capital continues to withdraw from the region, the Vietnamese market may face adjustment pressure.
Experts recommend that some industry groups should be prioritized during the adjustment period, which are civil real estate, securities, banking, and industrial park real estate. In addition, the consumer group is also worth paying attention to when benefiting from the 130,000 billion VND package to support the streamlining of the state apparatus, because the number of cadres who retire early will have more money to spend. Along with that, the 2% reduction in value-added tax rate is a stimulus, while the stock price of retail businesses has not fully reflected this factor.
