After 8 consecutive weeks of increase, VN-Index has shown signs of adjustment with a slight decrease last week along with a significant decrease in liquidity compared to the previous week. This is a sign that the market may be entering a consolidation or recovery phase after a long growth streak. Investors who evaluate falling liquidity often reflect investors' cautious psychology, whether due to increased profit-taking pressure or the lack of new motivation to push the index higher.
Domestic personal cash flow is playing a role in boosting market growth. Although the market's largest pillar is the banking group, which is still in an adjustment trend, the VN-Index has had 3 consecutive sessions on the MA20 support line - equivalent to 1,319 points. That shows that the sentiment of Vietnamese investors is still quite optimistic even though the VN-Index has entered a difficult trading zone in the past two weeks.
However, investors also need to be cautious with the macroeconomic context not being too favorable, when the State Bank has just increased the USD selling price to a record level of VND 26,003/USD. This move shows that the State Bank is taking stronger action to reduce pressure on foreign exchange reserves after having to sell more than $9 billion last year. This will have a negative impact on the general market sentiment, as foreign investors have also returned to a strong net selling momentum last week.
Last week, the market faced strong selling pressure from foreign investors, especially in the last 3 sessions with a net selling value per session ranging from 1,000-1500 billion VND. This move caused large-cap stocks such as FPT and MWG to turn to decrease sharply, putting pressure on the VN-Index. In the context of many uncertainties, if the net selling momentum still maintains high value, it can reduce domestic purchasing momentum, so that is a constant to note in the coming time.
According to the analysis of experts from VNDirect Securities Company, the sentiment of investors in the stock market is more cautious in the context of the Fed continuing to keep the operating interest rate unchanged at the 4.25-4.5% range and sending a signal of "not in a hurry" to cut interest rates due to concerns about the risk of "potential" inflation from US President Donald Trump's tariff policies despite recent signs of weakness in the US economy. At the same time, the market is also cautiously assessing the "risk" of Vietnam being on the list of countervailing tariffs by the US side in mid-April.
The adjustment when the VN-Index approaches the resistance zone of 1,340 points was predicted. The pressure to adjust may continue in the first sessions of next week. Investors need to closely monitor the net selling movements of foreign investors and bottom-fishing demand at the support zone of 1,300-1,320 points. If the VN-Index retreats to around 1,300 points, it will open up attractive disbursement opportunities, said VNDirect's expert.
Some other experts are in agreement, saying that the correction pressure scenario could continue in the first sessions of next week. However, this adjustment will be short-term, cash flow is still circulating between industry groups. Therefore, investors can increase their position as the market corrects, especially in the context of macro factors still being active.
Experts recommend that investors should still focus on stocks with good fundamentals and long-term growth potential and benefit from macro trends such as banking, real estate, public investment and retail, paying attention to stocks that have adjusted to attractive valuation zones.
However, the choice still depends on each person's risk appetite and investment strategy and also needs to be combined with further observation of developments in the current very complicated world market.
