Circulating cash flow between industry groups
The Vietnamese stock market continues to show a positive outlook in the medium and long term, although the trading session on March 19 recorded an adjustment when the VN-Index decreased by more than 6 points, closing at 1,324.63 points. Net selling pressure from foreign investors is still the main factor, as foreign investors maintain a state of widespread net selling.
However, experts say that, overall, the market still has many supportive drivers, especially the expectation of upgrading from a frontier market to an emerging market. According to Mr. Tran Hoang Son - Director of Market Strategy, VPBank Securities Company (VPBankS), the upgrading story along with the State Securities Commission (SSC) speeding up the testing process of the KRX system, completing new trading standards, will be a factor in retaining cash flow, creating a support for the market in the coming time.
Mr. Son commented: "Cash flow in the market is clearly differentiated and shifted between industry groups. In the recent period, banking stocks have always played a key role in attracting and holding the index, helping the VN-Index firmly overcome the 1,300-point mark and move to new highs. After the top 1 banking group completed their leading role and began to stagnate, cash flow tended to rotate to the top 2 and top 3 banking groups. As the market is differentiated, investors continue to seek opportunities in small and medium-cap banking stocks.
In particular, on March 17, the State Securities Commission conducted an inspection of the KRX system, which is an important preparation step to meet the technical criteria for the upgrading process. According to Mr. Son, in the context of many changes in support policies, the financial - banking group will continue to be an important destination for cash flow, along with the real estate group.
In the real estate group, after the period when Vingroup stocks played a leading role, cash flow also tended to shift to small and medium-sized stocks. The market is currently in a state of clearly intertwined profit-taking and differentiation. The cash flow after taking profits in large-cap stocks is rotating to other classes, while the newly participated cash flow is still quite active. The policies to remove obstacles from the State Securities Commission and management agencies continue to be expected to be a driving force to support the market from March to the beginning of the second quarter, said Mr. Son.
Securities companies increase capital
At the same time, many securities companies are also stepping up plans to increase capital to increase financial strength, ready for a new growth cycle. Dragon Capital Securities (VDSC) has just announced a plan to issue a total of 77 million shares, raising its charter capital from VND 2,430 billion to VND 3,200 billion. The capital raised will serve depositing, self-trading and participating in the bond market, leading the wave of strong liquidity increases and is expected to explode in the third quarter of 2025 when the upgrade story is activated.
Similarly, Saigon - Hanoi Securities (SHS) also set a target of doubling its charter capital to VND 17,126 billion. A series of other enterprises such as ACB Securities (ACBS), FPT Securities (FTS), VTG Securities (VTGS), VISecurities or Goutai Junan Vietnam (IVS) all have plans to increase capital on a large scale, demonstrating careful preparation to welcome opportunities from the upgrading prospect.
According to Mr. Nguyen The Minh - Director of Yuanta Vietnam Analysis, financial capacity and capital scale will play a key role in helping securities companies expand market share, meet margin needs and increase competitiveness as the market approaches upgrading. "This capital increase is not only defensive but also a preparation step for a period of clearer positive market changes," said Mr. Minh.
Although the pressure of net selling from foreign investors still exists, with supporting factors in terms of policies, upgrading processes and the initiative of enterprises, experts say that the Vietnamese stock market will still maintain a positive outlook in 2025.
