After 8 consecutive weeks of increase, the stock market in the week of March 17-21.3 was almost moving sideways with tense fluctuations, after failing to conquer the 1,340 point mark. The VN-Index ended an adjusted trading week with 4/5 sessions down. The circulating cash flow between pillar stocks supporting the index has helped the VN-Index maintain a new score around 1,320. At the end of the week, VN-Index decreased by 4.27 points (-0.32%) compared to the previous week.
Although selling pressure is not overwhelming, the lack of active cash flow and hesitant developments from both buyers and sellers have caused the market to fall into a state of prolonged competition. If this continues, the pressure to adjust will increase.
Foreign capital flows are selling strongly, becoming a large deduction when the value of each session reaches thousands of billions. Accumulated after 5 trading sessions last week, foreign investors net sold VND4,319 billion in the whole market. In particular, the net selling volume on the HOSE accounted for more than 90% of the total trading value of foreign investors in the whole market.
According to statistics according to stock codes, the focus of net selling this week continues to be recorded in FPT shares with a sudden value of VND 1,920 billion. This stock, under strong selling pressure from foreign investors since the beginning of the year, has also adjusted strongly and only recovered to 128,000 VND/share in the last session of the year. However, compared to the peak at the end of 2024, FPT has lost more than 19,9% of its market price and is no longer the largest private enterprise on the stock exchange.
The most impressive thing on the stock exchange last week was billionaire Pham Nhat Vuong's Vingroup (VIC code) stock that suddenly broke out strongly at the end of the week even though the general market was still adjusting. The boost of nearly 3% in the session of March 21 pushed VIC's market price to 53,000 VND/share, the highest since September 20, 2023. In the past month, this stock has increased by more than 30%.
Vingroup's market capitalization has also skyrocketed to nearly VND203,000 billion (equivalent to USD7.9 billion). This is the first time in the past 18 months that the group value of billionaire Pham Nhat Vuong has exceeded VND 200,000 billion. This figure takes Vingroup back the position of the largest private enterprise on the Vietnamese stock exchange.
Commenting on the market trend in the short term, Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, pointed out that the factors supporting the stock market are the interest rate level remaining low due to the determination of the Government and the State Bank in loosening monetary policy to support economic growth. Even if interest rates may increase slightly (0.25% - 0.5%), it will still be low and support the market.
In addition, the P/E valuation of VN-Index has tended to decrease in the past 4 years, but VN-Index has still increased thanks to strong growth in profits of listed enterprises. KBSV also forecasts that the exchange rate will only increase by about 2% in 2025, which will not put much pressure on monetary policy.
Another factor is the prospect of upgrading the market, Vietnam can be upgraded to market status in September 2025 due to solving some bottlenecks such as the DVP payment cycle and handling failed transactions related to Circular 68. This can attract foreign capital.
The biggest pressure on the stock market today is the fact that foreign investors have been net selling strongly in the past 2 years (more than VND 120,000 billion on the HOSE). If this trend continues, it could make it difficult for the VN-Index to break out.
