According to information from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) last week, despite increased fluctuations both domestically and internationally, Vietnam's economic growth still shows resilience, thanks to support policies.
Vietnam's economy has bounced strongly in 2024, achieving a growth rate of 7.09% thanks to strong exports, high resilience of foreign direct investment and supportive policies.
This growth momentum continues in the first half of 2025, with economic activity increasing by 7.52% (compared to the same period last year) thanks to early export promotion, faster credit growth and large lump-sum spending of the Government...
According to the IMF, the outlook for the economy depends largely on the results of trade negotiations and is limited by increased global uncertainty about trade policy and the economic environment.
The IMF forecasts that Vietnam's economic growth will slow down to 6.5% in 2025 and continue to slow down in 2026.
Previously, in the conclusion of the IMF working group in June, the Fund's staff forecast Vietnam's growth for the whole year of 2025 at only 5.4%, based on the IMF's World Economic outlook report in April 2025. In which it is assumed that the high tariffs will actually take effect from the third quarter of 2025.
The IMF's Executive Board noted that Vietnam's export-based growth model faces growing challenges from uncertain and rapidly changing global trade policies, population aging, tightening global financial conditions and climate change. On that basis, policies need to focus on maintaining economic resilience and financial stability, while promoting reforms to maintain strong, diverse and stable growth in the medium term.
Therefore, Vietnam is recommended to continue to maintain flexibility in policy coordination to respond to the uncertain and rapidly changing economic environment. With the available fiscal space, fiscal policy can play a leading role in cautiously supporting economic activities, especially in cases where temporary and targeted support measures are needed.
Previously, according to the Vietnam Economic Update Report published in September, the World Bank (WB) forecast that Vietnam's economy will grow by 6.6% in 2025, thanks to a breakthrough rate of 7.5% in the first half of the year.
According to the WB report, in the medium term, growth is forecast to slow down to 6.1% in 2026, before recovering to 6.5% in 2027 thanks to the improvement of global trade and Vietnam continuing to maintain its advantage as a competitive manufacturing destination.
"To support growth and reduce risks from the outside, the report recommends that Vietnam needs to promote public investment, control risks in the financial system, and promote institutional reforms" - the World Bank recommended.
