In the Asia Development perspective (ado) published in July 2025, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) lowered its growth forecast for developing economies in the Asia-Pacific region in the period of 2025 - 2026.
In particular, Vietnam's GDP growth is adjusted down to 6.3% in 2025 and 6% in 2026 (lower than the forecast in April of 6.6% and 6.5% respectively). Inflation is expected to fall to 3.9% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026.
According to ADB, strong import-export growth along with a strong increase in foreign investment disbursement have boosted the Vietnamese economy in the first half of 2025.
In particular, the total foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam in the first 6 months of this year was 32.6%, while disbursement increased by 8.1% over the same period last year, showing the strong confidence of the international community in Vietnam's economic prospects. Public investment disbursement reached the highest level since 2018, reaching 31.7% of the annual plan and increasing by 19.8% over the same period last year.
According to ADB, boosting exports to cope with tariff instability has boosted trade growth. However, this is unlikely to be maintained in the second half of the year.
According to ADB experts, despite the increasing risks due to tariff instability, promoting and effectively implementing domestic reforms can completely help Vietnam minimize negative impacts, thanks to an increasingly strengthened domestic foundation.
Previously, according to the report of the ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) released at the end of July, in the ASEAN+3 group, this year Vietnam is forecast to have the highest growth rate, followed by the Philippines (5.6%) and Cambodia (5.2%).
AMRO believes that Vietnam has enough policy space to support the economy when needed. Reforms to improve the investment environment and infrastructure are also helping Vietnam strengthen its position.
In early July, United Overseas Bank (UOB) also adjusted its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2025 to 6.9%, instead of the previous 6%.
UOB assessed that Vietnam's real GDP in the second quarter of 2025 has recovered strongly. This increase is far exceeding Bloomberg's forecast of 6.85% and UOB's forecast of 6.1%, as well as compared to the adjusted level of the first quarter of 2025 of 7.05%.
Notably, in the first half of the year, Vietnam's export turnover increased by 14.4% over the same period last year, reaching 219 billion USD, while imports increased by 17.9%, reaching 212 billion USD. These figures are equivalent to the growth rate for the whole year of 2024 (export increased by 14%, import increased by 16%).
In the last two quarters of the year alone, UOB forecasts GDP growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 at about 6.4%. Under this condition, the implemented FDI capital flow is expected to reach about 20 billion USD this year.
