In the report on Vietnam's economic prospects just released near the end of September, the global market and economic research department of UOB Bank (Singapore) said that Vietnam's real gross domestic product (GDP) increased sharply by 7.96% over the same period in the second quarter of 2025 (compared to the adjustment of 7.05% in the first quarter of 2025), surpassing the forecast of 6.85% by Bloomberg news agency and 6.1% by UOB itself.
In the first 6 months of the year, growth reached 7.52% over the same period. This is the highest level in the first 6 months of the year since 2011.
UOB said that the uncertainties in tariffs have eased in the second half of 2025, when the US completes the establishment of separate tariffs for each country ahead of schedule 1.8. The tax rate applied to Vietnam is fixed at 20%. Export turnover in July 2025 increased by 17% over the same period, reaching a record of 42.3 billion USD, bringing accumulated growth since the beginning of the year to nearly 16%. Despite pressure from tariffs, exports for the whole year can still increase by about 10% (compared to an increase of 14% in 2024).
"Despite risks and instability from tariffs, the Vietnamese economy still shows resilience and dynamism. After an impressive growth rate of 7.5% in the first half of 2025 and expectations of increased support from public investment, we have adjusted the GDP growth forecast for the whole year to 7.5%" - UOB forecast.
Previously, according to the Vietnam Economic Update Report published in September, the World Bank (WB) forecast that Vietnam's economy will grow by 6.6% in 2025, thanks to a breakthrough rate of 7.5% in the first half of the year.
According to the WB report, in the medium term, growth is forecast to slow down to 6.1% in 2026, before recovering to 6.5% in 2027 thanks to the improvement of global trade and Vietnam continuing to maintain its advantage as a competitive manufacturing destination.
"To support growth and reduce risks from the outside, the report recommends that Vietnam needs to promote public investment, control risks in the financial system, and promote institutional reforms" - the World Bank recommended.
In the July 2025 edition of the Asian Development perspective (ADB), the Asian Development Bank (ADB) lowered its growth forecast for developing economies in the Asia-Pacific region in the 2025 - 2026 period.
In particular, Vietnam's GDP growth is adjusted down to 6.3% in 2025 and 6% in 2026 (lower than the forecast in April of 6.6% and 6.5% respectively). Inflation is expected to fall to 3.9% in 2025 and 3.8% in 2026.
