VN-Index has just had a week of recovery in terms of scores. The general index increased by 19.47 points, equivalent to 1.19%, but most groups of stocks remained unchanged or adjusted slightly. Liquidity has improved a bit, but is still very low compared to the previous period.
The net selling value of foreign investors last week remained at approximately VND 2,000 billion, thereby causing strong pressure not only psychologically but also greatly affecting stock price action.
Internationally, last week was a turbulent period when a series of mixed signals about trade and growth caused strong fluctuations in global market sentiment.
Regarding the market scenario this week, experts from DSC Securities Company believe that the market will trade gloomy with depleted liquidity in the 1,630-1,680 point range. In the first sessions of the week, a slight recovery is likely to occur because most industry groups have returned to the hard support zone and demand is ready to absorb in the low-cost zone.
However, to truly have a clearer trend, DSC experts said that the VN-Index needs an explosive session with quality momentum, leading to a strong recovery and liquidity of the majority of stock groups. It is likely that this will happen in the first week of December, after a week of continuing to accumulate.
Assessing the liquidity of the market, Mr. Huynh Anh Huy, CFA - Director of Industry Analysis of Kafi Securities Company - said that the decrease in liquidity compared to last month shows that current cash flow is still cautious. Investors are observing more and limiting large-scale transactions in the context of the market lacking strong supporting information.
However, the positive thing is that cash flow has not withdrawn from the market but is repositioning to cheap-priced stocks with good growth potential, such as mid-cap and small-cap, especially in industries with a positive fundamentals or benefiting from the general recovery cycle of the economy.
With such a cash flow structure, according to analyst Kafi, the scenario of the market continuing to move in the sideways region is still supported. Although caution can create a surprising correction, the valuation level is not currently too high to trigger a strong downtrend.
In case a sell-off occurs, causing the VN-Index to fall below the 1,600 mark, bottom-fishing demand is likely to return soon, especially from the group of investors following a value strategy, before the index returns to the accumulation zone of 1,600-1,700.
Currently considered the "istship" period when global macro factors do not have many new points and mostly repeat familiar stories, causing investors to tend to observe and wait for clear signals before increasing the proportion.
Although the "supply" situation has appeared with weak selling pressure and narrowing range, experts said that the market still lacks strong enough momentum to form an increase, while liquidity has not decreased as much as in previous accumulation periods to create a solid foundation for a breakthrough.
According to Mr. Huynh Anh Huy, the outlook for the stock market at the end of the year will be more positive. Usually at the end of December, the market receives a lot of information from preliminary business results, New Year plans and macro policy orientations. This is also the final stage of the economy, when many production and consumption indicators accelerated.
Therefore, this time is expected to form a new wave, with a clearer improvement in support information and cash flow entering the market. Recent cash flow shows a clear shift when the banking, securities and real estate groups are under strong profit-taking pressure, causing the stock prices of these groups to adjust deeper to more attractive areas. The temporary withdrawal of cash flow invisibly creates a good price zone, helping many large stocks start forming new accumulation, this is an important signal for the possibility of the next wave.
