In the past week, the cautious and less active trading state in the first sessions of the week was quickly replaced by a breakthrough from midweek. The momentum came from the cooling down information of the conflict in the Middle East, along with a signal confirming FTSE's upgrade roadmap for the Vietnamese market.
VN-Index increased by nearly 70 points (3.92%), to 1,750 points. Liquidity improved significantly in the last three sessions of the week and remained above the 20-session average, showing that cash flow is returning to the market.
The increase spread across most industry groups, with the leading role belonging to the large-cap group. The VN30 index increased by nearly 5%, while the Midcap group also recorded a positive increase (4.7%). The main driving force came from the financial group (banking, securities, real estate), contributing significantly to the overall increase.
In addition, the construction, building materials and infrastructure groups recorded an expanding recovery momentum. In the opposite direction, the insurance group faced increased profit-taking pressure towards the end of the week, while the oil and gas group continued to fluctuate sideways.
The leading role of large-cap groups continues to consolidate the short-term recovery structure. However, profit-taking pressure in the high price range is still present, while external factors such as geopolitical negotiation process still contain variables.
In the short term, experts assess that the stock market is showing technical signals of starting to increase again. Although cash flow is still cautious due to negative macroeconomic information factors, the price position is improving. The fact that the VN-Index surpassed and maintained above the 1,750 point mark is a necessary condition to consolidate the short-term upward trend in April.
Regarding market liquidity, with FTSE officially recognizing the market as meeting the standards of emerging markets, the Government continues to maintain the GDP growth target for 2026 at 10%, cash flow has begun to flow strongly back into the market with average liquidity per session reaching over 24,000 billion VND.
In addition, the fact that the deposit interest rate level is maintained at a low level and the monetary policy orientation towards supporting growth is clearly a positive factor for the stock market. When capital costs decrease, cash flow tends to seek higher profit channels, and securities are often one of the natural choices. When savings interest rates decrease, the gap between deposit interest rates and stock yields will narrow, causing cash flow from savings deposits and bonds to shift to other channels, including securities channels.
In the short term, experts predict that the VN-Index will continue to maintain an upward trend and approach the resistance of 1,800 points next week.
ABS Securities Company offers two scenarios for the market in the coming time. In the base scenario, VN-Index maintains the support zone around 1,600 points and moves in the range of 1,600 - 1,880 points. Investors can prioritize trading on the daily frame with stocks that maintain support or have deep discounts in the recent correction phase.
According to ABS, the risk factor for stocks has decreased significantly, creating conditions for continuing to increase medium-term holding positions when the market is still in a state of doubting the upward trend. For short-term trading investors, trading frequency can be increased based on the support - resistance levels of each stock, prioritizing stocks forming bottoms after gradually increasing above the short-term framework. In the next period, prioritized investment stock groups include: banking, real estate, securities, steel, fertilizer, seaports - warehousing.
Mr. Nguyen The Minh, Director of Research and Development Division - Yuanta Vietnam Securities Company, said that the VN-Index may aim to test the 1,800-point level in the next trading week, but the market may experience a correction when it reaches this resistance level. In general, geopolitical risks have decreased significantly and the short-term trend is still in an upward trend, so this expert expects the market to maintain its upward momentum in the next trading week, but this upward momentum will go hand in hand with alternating up and down sessions.
