The VN-Index last week officially surpassed the psychological threshold of 1,300 points after being under strong downward pressure by the US tax information. The main index recorded a 34-point increase reflecting the investor sentiment that is gradually improving. Short-term cash flow increased again. Foreign investors continue to net buy more strongly, with a value of VND2,920 billion on HoSE.
From the bottom of 1,070 points in early April - the time the US announced the counterpart tax rate of up to 46% on goods from Vietnam - the main market index still increased by more than 230 points, equivalent to 21%, creating a surprising recovery.
However, the adjustment session last weekend decreased by more than 11 points along with short-term risks, showing that stock investors are under pressure to take profits to lower margin. The market is also expected to see unpredictable changes, especially as US President Donald Trump has just announced a temporary talks halt and will announce tariffs in the next few weeks.
Regarding the macro situation, analysts of ABS Securities Company (ABS Research) pointed out that the yield of US government bonds increased after the reciprocal tax report made the issue of VND/USD exchange more difficult when the interest rate in the US is higher than the corresponding interest rate in Vietnam, affecting the flow of international capital flows from Vietnam back to the US.
In addition, Vietnam's need to increase purchases in USD to meet future demand for increased imports of goods from the US to improve trade balance with this country also puts more pressure on exchange rates. Gold prices also increased sharply because in addition to the factor of world gold prices increasing, it was also congisoned with the increase in the VND/USD exchange rate. These are detrimental to cash flow into the stock market, ABS Research said.
In this difficult context, Vietnam has many policies to mobilize and strengthen internal resources, through public investment policies, credit easing, institutional reform, priority focusing on developing science and technology (Resolution 57), priority focusing on developing the private economy (Resolution 68), solutions to support businesses (taxes, fees...), consumption (continuing to reduce VAT), expanding social security...
However, with the stock market, ABS Research believes that this is a period of the market and the context of economic information is not very positive, the market is recovering positively in the short term, while the medium term is not completely clear.
Regarding the market trend next week, experts from Pinetree Securities Company said that investors may not see many breakthrough fluctuations like last week, when the macro situation has not changed much, the only support for the market at this time still comes from updating the situation of Vietnam's tariff negotiations.
The market will differentiate more clearly, when only in the banking group, individual stocks will also have opposite developments when large banks are dragged in turn and most of them need their own supporting stories. The lack of consensus in the "king" group of stocks shows that the VN-Index is still lacking important momentum to continue to break out next week.
Phu Hung Securities Company recommends that investors still need to pay attention to uncertain factors from the outside. The result of the tariff agreement with the US will have a significant impact on Vietnam's economic growth prospects this year. Therefore, investors prioritize maintaining long-term investment positions but limit the use of leverage during this period.
