The stock market is in a good recovery period after no longer being pressured by unfavorable macro information or policy fluctuations.
In the first week of May, the VN-Index recorded an increase of nearly 45 points and is at 1,270 points, showing that investor sentiment is stabilizing again.
However, entering the upcoming information low, experts are warning that the market is approaching the important resistance level of 1,270-1,280 and in fact, last weekend when prices entered this zone, there was an adjustment.
Therefore, this will be an important challenge for the market before entering a new uptrend. There is a possibility of an adjustment to move up higher.
Recently, the market has gained thanks to the large support from the "family" of Vingroup to contribute over 90 points to the rise of VN-Index and over 20 points in the last 10 sessions. Although not a negative factor, it also causes a risk of adjustment to the market in May, because the momentum of spreading power.
Especially in the group of banking stocks with weak growth with lower-than-expected business results in the first quarter of 2025, and the risk of technical adjustment due to the increase depending on the small group of stocks.
Regarding the short-term outlook, analysts also agreed that profit-taking pressure will increase next week as recent positive information about tax negotiations and profit growth in the first quarter of 2025 of enterprises has been largely reflected in prices.
Taxes are still the biggest factor affecting the stock market. Currently, countries are still negotiating with the US to cool down tariffs and as well as trade tensions. The market will react positively when the tariff level is cooled down and commercial activities soon resume.
However, the application of tariffs has significantly affected the growth rate of enterprises, thereby affecting stock valuations, reducing the attractiveness of the stock market.
In the immediate future, the VN -Index will face many obstacles in the barrier area of 1,270 - 1,280; More than 1,300 psychological milestones. Psychology of Vietnamese and global investors is gradually stabilizing, with the expectation of the US -China and Vietnamese - US -US trade negotiations, but the negotiation process can last longer than expectations, the Sell in sewing cycle will affect the market's momentum. Therefore, without strong support information, the VN-Index scenario soon broke through the strong bumper area above is not high.
Analysts from Vietcombank Securities Company (VTCK) commented that the VN-Index is moving up as Vietnam enters the process of negotiating tariffs with the United States. Large-cap stocks have clearly played a role in attracting strong cash flow returns to the market in recent times, recording the first signs of adjustment.
However, the common ground of stock groups still recorded recovery and psychology of investors in the market is also more active than the time before the holiday. Therefore, investors can maintain the current share of stocks in the portfolio, avoid buying stock codes that have gained momentum in recent years and cautiously monitor the next news about the tariff negotiation process in the coming days.
In the short term, the analysis team of VNDirect Securities Company believes that the VN-Index may fluctuate in the range of 1,200 - 1,280 points as investors wait for clearer signals from trade negotiation rounds between the US and Vietnam.
The ability to overcome strong resistance threshold in the 1,270 - 1,280 points will depend heavily on the results of trade negotiations in the direction of a lower reciprocal tax rate, less than 20%, or in the scenario of the State Bank lowering the executive interest rate to support the economy.
