The stock market has adjusted its accumulation within the range of 1,630 - 1,650 points in the past few weeks. There is still no phenomenon of sell-off or the appearance of large liquidity adjustment sessions, which is also a notable positive point.
In the context of the market "holding its breath" waiting for the FTSE Russell upgrade result on October 8, investors predict that the VN-Index will continue to move sideways (hiding sideways) in the range of 1,600-1,680 points due to investors being cautious and waiting for official information from FTSE.
If the upgrading results are announced positively (high probability according to international organizations), the index may have the momentum to increase after the recent adjustment series. On the contrary, if delayed, the VN-Index could fall below 1,600 points due to disappointment with the possibility of 1-2 negative reactions even though this scenario rarely occurs.
The upgrading story is also of interest as foreign investors are making quite strong net selling moves. Experts predict that net selling pressure from foreign investors may increase sharply in the transition period, especially from frontier Markets that are restructuring their portfolios before the FTSE valuation mark.
September 2025 data showed that foreign investors net sold more than VND 27,257 billion, focusing on Real Estate, Banking, and Securities, but domestic buying from institutional investors has been well absorbed, helping the VN-Index stabilize around 1,660 points. Experts expect foreign investors to stop selling and net buying again from the end of October onwards when the FED begins to cut interest rates further and we have good news from the upgrade.
Regarding the story of sharp decline in market liquidity, investors believe that if September is the month of accumulation with "exhausted" liquidity, October is the month in which market developments can improve. There will probably be many positive news in October.
October 2025 is considered a "hot" month with many overlapping events, creating motivation to support investor psychology but also having two aspects. Firstly, Vietnam's Q3/2025 macro report is expected to show GDP growth of over 8% over the same period, thanks to the recovery of exports and public investment, which will strengthen confidence and push cash flow into cyclical stocks such as steel and construction.
The third quarter business results of listed enterprises are forecasted to be positive in some sectors such as retail and banking (credit growth of 13%), helping the VN-Index maintain accumulation momentum and can reach 1,700 points if the results exceed expectations.
At the end of the month, the FOMC FED meeting (29,30 October) with the possibility of cutting interest rates by 25bps (probability of 95%) will be a "medicine" to stimulate global demand, reduce USD pressure and encourage foreign capital to flow in if Vietnam is upgraded to a "emerging Markets" market.
Overall, these factors will help the market maintain a positive trend, but it is also important to note. past statistics show that October is often a month of strong fluctuations in the Vietnamese stock market, both in terms of increase and decrease.
