The first trading week of September seemed to go against all positive forecasts when there was no breakout session to return to the old peak and surpass the 1,300 point mark. On the contrary, 2 adjustment sessions before a slight recovery at the end of the week caused much "confusion" for investors.
After two sessions of decline right after the holiday, the VN-Index recovered in the last trading session of the week. However, trading volume is still below the 20-day average, showing that investors have not yet escaped from the cautious mentality.
Meanwhile, foreign investors maintained their net selling trend. Although only trading in 3 sessions in the first week of September, foreign investors net sold up to 1,220 billion VND, in which VPB and HPG were the 2 stocks sold the most.
In terms of contribution, the 10 stocks with the most positive impact on the index are all in the VN30 group, contributing more than 5 points to the VN-Index, led by BID, MSN and CTG. On the contrary, VIC, SSB and HDB are the stocks with the most negative impact, but the level is not too significant. Green returned to most industry groups. In particular, the information technology group became the market leader with an increase of 1.06%.
Experts say that in the context of the global stock market adjusting due to recession concerns and the strong impact from the decline of large US technology super stocks, the Vietnamese stock market cannot escape the spiral of anxiety.
September is expected to be a month with many factors supporting the stock market. Positive macroeconomic data, GDP growth figures for the third quarter and clues for the forecast of GDP for the whole year. VCBS Securities Company reported that in the last 4 months of 2024, there are a number of factors supporting the stock market. First, the expectation of the Fed cutting interest rates. Second, the Government is boosting public investment to boost economic growth. Third, the determination to upgrade the stock market, at the same time, the Government and the State Bank will have policies to manage interest rates in accordance with the general situation to stimulate the development of the stock market.
Dr. Nguyen Duy Phuong, Investment Director of DG Capital, commented that the global stock market will react positively when the Fed lowers interest rates, which will also benefit the Vietnamese market. The Fed's interest rate cut will make assets priced in USD less attractive, because the profits will no longer be as expected. Therefore, other investment assets with higher profits will be focused on, such as investments in frontier and emerging financial markets, including Vietnam, helping to increase foreign capital flows into these markets.
"The stock market will perform more positively at the end of the year, especially in an "uptrend" year like this year, the VN-Index can reach 1,350 - 1,400 points, or even higher. There will be many short-term investment opportunities as well as long-term buying and holding," Dr. Phuong predicted.
