The Vietnamese stock market is entering a decisive breakthrough phase in 2026, when macroeconomic and market dynamics shift from a recovery phase to a new growth cycle, based on breakthrough reforms.
Many securities companies are expecting that in 2026, VN-Index will continue to break through, with targets above the threshold of 2,000 points.
The analysis team of VCBS Securities Company pointed out that domestic and foreign monetary policy is favorable, expected to support credit growth and capital flows into the stock market.
With the current market valuation level being attractive compared to the regional average, and the low interest rate level along with strong credit growth continuing to be a favorable environment will support abundant market liquidity and raise the valuation level of industries to a new high level. Average liquidity in 2026 is forecast to reach 27,000-29,000 billion VND/session.
Some factors contributing to liquidity include: reversal in the trading trend of foreign investors, shifting from strong net selling to net buying when Vietnam was upgraded by FTSE. Besides, the trend of easing and the relative weakening of the USD may reduce the net withdrawal process of foreign investors.
VCBS expects a breakthrough in 2026 with policies aimed at eliminating the credit ceiling, modernizing the legal framework, creating conditions for banks to allocate capital based on efficiency, linking credit growth with risk management capacity and profitability, instead of pursuing to expand pure credit scale.
Another driving force for the stock market is fiscal policy, which is a key tool to achieve the GDP growth target of 10%.
According to the VCBS analysis group, as the room for monetary policy easing gradually narrowed, pressure from inflation risks and currency devaluation, fiscal policy became a key tool in shaping and promoting economic growth, achieving the target of 10% in 2026.
Experts at Mirae Asset assess that Vietnam's stock market is still at an attractive level compared to its medium-term growth potential. Compared to markets in the region, Vietnam maintains a high return on equity (ROE) with positive growth prospects. With a base scenario forecasting EPS growth of about 20%, VN-Index may aim for the 2,300 point mark, corresponding to an average long-term P/E level of about 17 times. The current projected EPS level reflects the "normalization" after the high growth period of 2025, when the total market profit increased by about 30-33%.
Although the growth prospects are positively assessed, proactive and disciplined risk management is still a key factor to effectively utilize investment opportunities. According to Mirae Asset, the market's breakthrough prospects may come from the synergy of three factors, including the potential for revaluation after upgrades, increased market liquidity and the recovery of the business community's confidence.
Notably, the Vietnamese stock market is forecast to attract about 1 billion USD from passive investment funds after FTSE Russell put Vietnam into the secondary emerging market index basket on September 21, 2026.
However, Mirae Asset also noted some structural risks that need to be closely monitored. In which, it is noteworthy that the margin leverage level in the market is at a high level. The large margin lending ratio makes the market fall into a "sensitive" state, when any shock or negative information can trigger a sell-off wave, thereby strongly increasing the level of volatility.
In addition, the risk also comes from the rapid increase in stock prices of the super-large-cap group in the past time. This is a group of stocks that plays a leading role in the upward momentum of the VN-Index in 2025, making the index more sensitive to individual shocks from leading enterprises.
